let a rae of sunshine through...
Showing posts with label 2008 election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 election. Show all posts
10.22.2008
10.15.2008
One plank at a time
stop planning the implementation of the "New Jerusalem" on day one...
NDP wins but miss big opportunity.
No doubt the NDP can be happy with the election, they should not however be too happy. In an election where the Liberals were on the ropes, where Quebec was snuggling up and beginning to say sweet nothings into your ear, you have to pounce.
First the NDP campaign did a much better job of than in past years. Layton managed to get through the whole election without snickering once when he said he was running for Prime Minister and the media only snickered a few times. Well done.
The NDP platform was almost good enough. Much of it held things that were important to people. Bank charges, mortgages, health care, child care etc worked well. Unfortunately the NDP fell back to the tired slamming of Corporations and banks. Its true most of us don't care for these folks but at the same time we recognise that we can't always be talking about making them pay.
The NDP stated they would end the proposed tax cuts for business. Its a lot of money, 50 billion dollars. Canadians understand that business can move away, that the world is becoming increasingly smaller. That means we need to be at least on the outer fringes of competitive taxation. The message may appeal to the NDP's core support but it is a red flag for many that like the other things we talk about but are concerned about the reality of business.
Harper has learned a lesson in politics. He is practising incrementalism. Something the NDP could and should look at or the chances of electoral success will be limited to victories like this one. We have a few more voices but never enough to change direction of the flow.
The NDP don't call for leaving NATO or nationalising the banks anymore because it a lost cause and not needed. We don't need to bash business or blame them for everything. We use to have policies that were good for small business, yet they never get discussed because we have allowed others, the media, the Liberals, the Conservatives to define us. They can do it because our leadership are quick to dice up corporations the minute a microphone is stuck under their nose.
We need to know who it is that will vote for us. Its low and middle income families, people that shop at Wal-mart, IKEA and Canadian Tire. Immigrants should be voting for us as well, yet we losing to the Conservatives. Rural Canadians should be voting for us but we are losing there to those same Conservatives. Quebecers should be voting for us, yet we look like old radicals to most of them.
When we stop planning the implementation of the "New Jerusalem" on day one of our election to government, we will be elected to government. One plank at a time comrades...
Dion humiliated publicly
The end was near before the infamous three strike tape made it to air. I'm not saying the tape did not hurt, heck I'm a veteran of the NDP in BC and I know first hand what the media can do.
The 98 pound weakling described to Canadians by the Conservatives for a year leading was never addressed by the Liberals in the first place. Dion was humiliated publicly every time he voted for a Harper budget or confidence motion. Dion did not have enough time to change it.
The Liberals showed they were not ready for the fight when it was called, they looked second class with the use of an old plane, that would not be ready for days into the election, which left Dion travelling on greyhound.
The decision to visit only friendly ridings in the first few days also spelled trouble. It was seen as stemming the lose of seats, rather than trying to win them. While Harper was in Quebec and Layton was in Calgary taking the fight to Harper's doorstep, the Liberals were pleading with their own to stay with them.
The Green Shift proved to be an anchor. It kept pulling Dion down. It was too easily ridiculed as a costly tax and too hard to justify. It does not matter that it may have been the best idea, you can't sell it too people if you can't explain it in a few sentences.
Dion spent too much time fighting the NDP. He had to take Layton on because the NDP were making inroads on his support. I am sure the Liberal internal tracking polls told them this. He fell back on telling the NDP supporters they need to support the Liberals to stop Harper. Layton and the NDP just had to point to the 43 votes that the Liberals voted to keep Harper in Government. This election most of the NDP support stayed home though my guess is the Liberals did get some of them.
Where to go from here. Dion has a few serious issues to deal with, I hope he has a small army of folks watching his back. His number one problem is the less than enthusiastic endorsements received last night and this morning from Bob Rae and Iggy. Add to that the election of Justin Trudeau and his leadership favourite, Gerard Kennedy and Dion has a pretty complicated chess board to play with.
The Liberals will need to decide in the next few weeks on keeping Dion or going to a leadership contest in the coming months. My suggestion is that they do it quick or not at all. But do it. Now that would be the kind of leadership Dion didn't show during the election.
Me, I will watch, tear them apart when I can and then work too see Jack Layton and the NDP move a little more to the centre, creeping onto that Liberal grass, and maybe start mowing it ourselves.
The 98 pound weakling described to Canadians by the Conservatives for a year leading was never addressed by the Liberals in the first place. Dion was humiliated publicly every time he voted for a Harper budget or confidence motion. Dion did not have enough time to change it.
The Liberals showed they were not ready for the fight when it was called, they looked second class with the use of an old plane, that would not be ready for days into the election, which left Dion travelling on greyhound.
The decision to visit only friendly ridings in the first few days also spelled trouble. It was seen as stemming the lose of seats, rather than trying to win them. While Harper was in Quebec and Layton was in Calgary taking the fight to Harper's doorstep, the Liberals were pleading with their own to stay with them.
The Green Shift proved to be an anchor. It kept pulling Dion down. It was too easily ridiculed as a costly tax and too hard to justify. It does not matter that it may have been the best idea, you can't sell it too people if you can't explain it in a few sentences.
Dion spent too much time fighting the NDP. He had to take Layton on because the NDP were making inroads on his support. I am sure the Liberal internal tracking polls told them this. He fell back on telling the NDP supporters they need to support the Liberals to stop Harper. Layton and the NDP just had to point to the 43 votes that the Liberals voted to keep Harper in Government. This election most of the NDP support stayed home though my guess is the Liberals did get some of them.
Where to go from here. Dion has a few serious issues to deal with, I hope he has a small army of folks watching his back. His number one problem is the less than enthusiastic endorsements received last night and this morning from Bob Rae and Iggy. Add to that the election of Justin Trudeau and his leadership favourite, Gerard Kennedy and Dion has a pretty complicated chess board to play with.
The Liberals will need to decide in the next few weeks on keeping Dion or going to a leadership contest in the coming months. My suggestion is that they do it quick or not at all. But do it. Now that would be the kind of leadership Dion didn't show during the election.
Me, I will watch, tear them apart when I can and then work too see Jack Layton and the NDP move a little more to the centre, creeping onto that Liberal grass, and maybe start mowing it ourselves.
A few surprises for everyone
The election was not too out of line as to what was predicted with the exception of the large loss the Liberals took in Ontario. The Liberals finished with their worst record ever in percentage of votes. John Turner can now go back to the cocktail parties and hear jokes about Stephane instead of himself.
There were some nice little surprises for everyone however. The Bloc did manage to claw their way back albeit with 7 or 8 fewer seats. The Liberals in Toronto feel a little better with Kennedy, the Dion Maker making it in what turned out not to be so close a race with the popular Peggy Nash and Hedy the flame thrower in Vancouver Centre confounded everyone again, just how does she keep winning?
The Conservatives have a increased their seat count and have added a seat in PEI for the first time in a generation and managed to hold onto 10 Quebec seats. The Greens rose in a couple of percentage points in the poular vote and Elizabeth May did them proud (mostly) on the campaign trail.
The big winner though not as big as they wanted to be was the NDP. The NDP picked up 8 seats and held onto their one Quebec seat against all odds. Perhaps more stunning was the win by Linda Duncan in Edmonton and the seat in St. Johns Newfoundland and Labrador, like the Conservatives in PEI, its the first time in a generation.
In the end its easy to say we are right back where we started. Thats not the case. Although we have a minority Government, we see that the Liberals are not the party they once were. More on that in another post.
There were some nice little surprises for everyone however. The Bloc did manage to claw their way back albeit with 7 or 8 fewer seats. The Liberals in Toronto feel a little better with Kennedy, the Dion Maker making it in what turned out not to be so close a race with the popular Peggy Nash and Hedy the flame thrower in Vancouver Centre confounded everyone again, just how does she keep winning?
The Conservatives have a increased their seat count and have added a seat in PEI for the first time in a generation and managed to hold onto 10 Quebec seats. The Greens rose in a couple of percentage points in the poular vote and Elizabeth May did them proud (mostly) on the campaign trail.
The big winner though not as big as they wanted to be was the NDP. The NDP picked up 8 seats and held onto their one Quebec seat against all odds. Perhaps more stunning was the win by Linda Duncan in Edmonton and the seat in St. Johns Newfoundland and Labrador, like the Conservatives in PEI, its the first time in a generation.
In the end its easy to say we are right back where we started. Thats not the case. Although we have a minority Government, we see that the Liberals are not the party they once were. More on that in another post.
10.14.2008
The anti-progressive Liberals
When progressive is regressive...
The following is a list of anti-choice and or anti-gay marriage Liberals in this campaign. The list is compiled from the Campaign Life Coalition voters guide. The incumbent Liberals are in red...
There are several other Liberal candidates that I suspect are anti-choice and or anti-gay marriage, however I have not found enough to list them here. Here is the official vote on Bill 38, third reading, Civil Marriage Act
Ontario
Mississauga East-Cooksville
LIB - Albina Guarnieri, MP (905) 766-1482
Summary: Pro-Life; No to Morgentaler award; 2006:Pro-life
Mississauga South
LIB - Paul Szabo, MP (905) 823-0823
Summary: Pro-Life; No to Morgentaler award. 2006:Pro-life; voted against Bill C-38 (to change the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples)
Richmond Hill
LIB - Bryon Wilfert, MP (905) 770-5033
voted against Bill C-38 (to change the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples)
Sarnia-Lambton
LIB - Tim Fugard (519) 869-4156
Summary: Mr. Fugard appears to be solidly pro-life
Scarborough-Agincourt
LIB - Jim Karygiannis , MP (416) 321-2788
Summary: Pro-Life voting record; No to Morgentaler award. 2006:Pro-life; voted against Bill C-38 (to change the definition of marriage to include same-sex couple)
Scarborough-Guildwood
LIB - John McKay, MP (416) 431-5980
Summary: No to Morgentaler award. 2006:Pro-abortion based on voting record; voted against Bill C-38 (to change the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples)
Pickering-Scarborough East
LIB - Dan McTeague, MP (905) 421-8787
Summary: Solid Pro-Lifer, with a pro-life voting record in Parliament. No to Morgentaler award. 2006:Pro-life; voted against Bill C-38 (to change the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples)
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
LIB - Denis Sabourin (613) 936-6878
Pro Life
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
LIB - Ken Boshcoff, MP (807) 623-5121
voted against Bill C-38 (to change the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples)
Toronto-Danforth
LIB - Andrew Lang (416) 463-8378
Summary: In an interview with a CLC supporter he said he would like to see a law around abortion and if elected would raise the abortion issue.
Welland
LIB - John Maloney, MP (905) 714-0007
Summary: No to Morgentaler award. 2006:Pro-abortion; voted against Bill C-38 (to change the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples)
York South-Weston
LIB - Alan Tonks, MP (416) 248-2895
Summary: Pro-Life (life). 2006:Pro-life, with exception for rape (based on his questionnaire); however he voted against the pro-life motion M-83 and for C-13 (allowing experimentation on embryos); voted against Bill C-38 (to change the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples
Bramalea-Gore-Malton
LIB - Gurbax Malhi, MP (905) 792-9836
Summary: 2006:Pro-life; voted against Bill C-38 (to change definition of marriage to include same-sex couples)
Carleton-Mississippi Mills
LIB - Justin MacKinnon (613) 836-8901
Summary: Will support pro-life legislation, has exceptions(medical) to allow for abortion and no comment on euthanasia.
Eglinton-Lawrence
LIB - Joe Volpe, MP (416) 787-7345
Summary: 2006:Pro-life, based on voting record
Etobicoke Centre
LIB - Borys Wrzesnewskyj, MP (416) 621-1060
Summary: No to Morgentaler award. 2006: Pro-life with exception for the life of the mother
Huron-Bruce
LIB - Greg McClinchey
Summary: Pro-Life
Manitoba
Saint Boniface
LIB - Raymond Simard, MP (204) 988-4750
voted against Bill C-38 (to change definition of marriage to include same-sex couples)
New Brunswick
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
LIB - Brian Murphy, MP (506) 384-4343
in an interview he stated he did not know how he would vote on the same-sex marriage
Saint John
LIB - Paul Zed, MP (506) 657-3000
Pro-Life statement. 2006:Pro-life (exception for life of mother); voted against Bill C-38 (change the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples)
Newfoundland and Labrador
Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
LIB - Scott Simms, MP (709) 489-6155
Summary: 206:Voted against Bill C-38.
Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
LIB - Gerry Byrne, MP (709) 634-1021
voted against Bill C-38 (to change definition of marriage to include same-sex couples)
Random-Burin-St. George's
LIB - Judy Foote (709) 832-2111
Summary: Some Pro-Life responses, exception for Rape, unsure for Euthanasia
Nova Scotia
Cape Breton-Canso
LIB - Rodger Cuzner, MP (902) 849-8822
voted against Bill C-38 (to change definition of marriage to include same-sex couples)
Prince Edward Island
Cardigan
LIB - Lawrence MacAulay, MP (902) 361-5505
pro-life motion M-83; voted against Bill C-38 (to change the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples)
--
Stephen Harper's Toppling Economy
Where are my blocks...
Jack's borrowed them to show us what Harper has been doing
make them add up to 155
I can't make them add up to 155...
It looks like this too me...
Porcelain bus has a good list for tonight
Conservatives 125 to 140
Liberals 80 to 100
NDP 39 to 48
Bloc 49 to 57
Green 0
NDP growth to be in BC, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Quebec
Liberal's will lose seats in Ontario and BC, pick up in Quebec and NFLD. Ontario 905 is vital to the Liberals. They have to hold it or they could have a really bad night.
Conservatives will pick up in Ontario and may lose to NDP in BC but pick up from Liberals. Quebec could be a wipe out!
The NDP stand to pick up to 6 - 9 seats in Ontario, 3 in Saskatchewan, 2 or 3 in Quebec, 1 in NFLD, 2 to 3 in the Maritimes, and 4 to 7 in BC.
I hope I'm wrong and the NDP and Liberal numbers add up to 155
Big money behind Liberal in Vancouver
when is it not enough money...
Yuan has three individual third party advertisers. No other candidate in Canada has this as far as I can tell from Elections Canada's list. Check out Mike Watkin's site for more here.
'Of thousands of candidates running in 308 ridings across the country only one candidate - Wendy Yuan - appears to have multiple third party individuals running election advertising in her support. The by-the-numbers view looks like this:'
I looked at the addresses of the third party advertisers for Ms Yuan. None of them live in the Vancouver Kingsway riding. This is certainly a crafty campaign, they can now spend the maximum for the party and then have these private individuals print ads at no cost to your campaign. All you need are some rich friends...
Read more about this advertising which has in some cases resulted in it being characterised as racist.

Verbatim translation of this ad "Authorised by Yi Xin Chen".
= = = = = = = = = = = =
PLEASE CAST YOUR VOTE FOR WENDY YUAN
NDP candidate - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Liberal Party candidate
Don Davies - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Wendy Yuan
union background - - - - - - - - - - - - - - successful entrepreneur
increase taxes - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut taxes
do not speak Chinese- - - - - - - - - - - - speaks Chinese
no [CHN] community leader support - has [CHN] community leader support
This federal election, the Conservative party candidate is so unknown that he's only an also-run. Please unite, on 10/14 cast a vote for our Chinese community candidate, Wendy Yuan.
Thank you!
Authorized by Yi Xin Chen
= = = = = = = = = = = =
PLEASE CAST YOUR VOTE FOR WENDY YUAN
NDP candidate - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Liberal Party candidate
Don Davies - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Wendy Yuan
union background - - - - - - - - - - - - - - successful entrepreneur
increase taxes - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut taxes
do not speak Chinese- - - - - - - - - - - - speaks Chinese
no [CHN] community leader support - has [CHN] community leader support
This federal election, the Conservative party candidate is so unknown that he's only an also-run. Please unite, on 10/14 cast a vote for our Chinese community candidate, Wendy Yuan.
Thank you!
Authorized by Yi Xin Chen
It looks like Wendy Yuan, the Liberal candidate in Vancouver Kingsway could be a candidate for the Conservative Cabinet if she wins tonight. Don't laugh, its happened before right? Just who are these people?
recommend this post
playing race politics in Vancouver
Falun Gong, are they Human?...
Vancouver Kingsway
This is a NDP Liberal race. The Liberal candidate is Wendy Yuan, who stepped aside so David Emerson could run for the Liberals.
On an all candidates debate organized by Chinese Radio AM 1320 on October 4, 2008, Yuan in an attempt to appeal to ethnic Chinese voters said this regarding the rights abuses against Falun Gong in China...
"For Falun Gong, our policy is not to interfere in other countries’ internal affairs.” - Ms. Yuan. All the other candidates spoke in favour of protecting the basic rights of Falun Gong practitioners.
I expect this does not match Liberal policy, but hey, what ever works...
and in that category we have this ...
Allegations of racist advertising raised in Vancouver-Kingsway election battle
Environment vote sites need a grain of salt
Be careful with the voter advisory sites...
Look at the riding of Thunder Bay-Rainy River. Its a race this time between the Conservative and NDP. Vote for Climate says vote for the Liberal MP, Ken Boshcoff. This despite a warning stating,
"if you decide to support Ken Boshcoff this election, you should still make him earn his vote! MP Boshcoff has not been the most ardent supporter of his party's climate change plan, and he needs to know that you are sending him back to Ottawa to get on with the serious work of cutting greenhouse gas emissions."
Anything but Conservative site says Vote NDP in this riding. And Vote for the Environment says "You Choose" and then goes on to tell us this...
"This is a tough one given this could easily be a three way race. Liberal Ken Boshcoff is the incumbent, but current polling puts the NDP in the lead with the Conservatives close behind. It will be important to avoid a NDP Liberal split with the Conservatives coming up the middle, so please check in later as we try to get some local intelligence as this race progresses."
I did check back later, election day morning, and still no recommendation here.
All indications show that the NDP candidate is likely to win. Why no recommendation on Vote for the environment given the Liberal candidate's lack luster support for environment and why is vote for climate saying vote Liberal given their own stated reservations.
Vote for the environment by voting against it...
Vote for the
environment by voting against it...
environment by voting against it...I never ever thought I would see Joyce Murray and Vote for the Environment in the same sentance...
That's what the Liberal message is these days. Take the Liberal MP in Vancouver Quadra. Joyce Murray was once the minister responsible for the environment in BC. That may sound like a winner for you but look a little deeper. Murray was appointed minister of water, land and air protection. The BC Liberal Premier, Gordon Campbell had removed the word environment.
That's what the Liberal message is these days. Take the Liberal MP in Vancouver Quadra. Joyce Murray was once the minister responsible for the environment in BC. That may sound like a winner for you but look a little deeper. Murray was appointed minister of water, land and air protection. The BC Liberal Premier, Gordon Campbell had removed the word environment.
Murray laid off hundreds of wildlife officers, slashed 1800 jobs in her ministry, ended moratoriums that blocked new salmon fish farms and the hunting of grizzly bears, watered down pesticide and waste management regulations. Murray was a disaster at protecting the environment taking the ministry built up under the NDP as a one of the biggies and making it more or less, a cash and carry store.
Murray had a terrible record as a provincial Liberal environment minister. Vote for Environment says vote for Murray. This is what makes the Vote for the Environment site so irritating. I can not see how any environment voter in the NDP or Green that would be able to hold their nose and vote for Murray.
10.13.2008
Blame Layton
"I can't win without the NDP...," Liberal message
The Liberals can not win this election. We are going to have a Conservative minority. As the latest polls put the Conservatives anywhere form 6 to 10 points ahead and the NDP anywhere from 8 to 4 points behind the Liberals its any body's guess what the seat count will be for those two parties.
There is no obligation or higher goal that should see NDP supporters and candidates to toss out their vote to a Liberal. Its always a one way street with the Liberals. You have to vote for us, they chant. Even in Saskatchewan, in BC and parts of Ontario where the Liberals don't stand a ghost of a chance.
I think it is ludicrous and disingenuous of the Liberal crowd to go after Jack for not saying, vote Liberal. 1 in 4 Canadians according to most polls plan to vote liberal. 1 in 5 (or higher) say they will vote NDP. To say those Canadians should fold their tent and go home is pretty self serving and not unlike every other Liberal campaign.
This time the desperate appeal from the Liberals to NDP voters is going unheard. Steve V over at Far and Wide, is blaming Jack Layton for the Harper lead in the polls. It seems to me that the Liberals responsibility is for their own position and the NDP for theirs and Harper can look after himself.
The NDP have steadily attacked the Harper government and its agenda for two years and in this campaign, while the Liberals played silly games like, not showing up for votes, or worse yet voting for the harper agenda, for legislation they say they are opposed too, just so they did not have to go to an election.
The Liberals are full of excuses, like they couldn't win an election, we had no money, we had no leader, we have lost our base of supporters. It goes on. The thing is, the Liberal party gambled that they could hold off a little and then people would flock too them, recovering in the polls or a Harperite would say something stupid.
It did not work. While the leader of the opposition and his party were busy propping up the harper government, Then NDP and Jack Layton refused to vote for legislation they did not believe in. Thats the difference and why many people saw Jack Layton as the Unofficial leader of the opposition.
The Liberals will have only themselves to blame if they lose and it looks like they will.
All that said I and many of my friends do have much in common with those that are Liberal supporters. We also look and think and many of us will vote for a Liberal, because in this case they are someone that shares our values, albeit in another party, and they might be able to beat the Conservative.
a good reason to vote NDP is posted at Dr. Dawg
Judge - Stop distribution of leaflet to Tory in Toronto
A Conservative candidate has been served an injunction that blocks distribution of an election flyer that is full of
inaccuracies. How many inaccuracies? Enough inaccuracies for a Judge to stop its distribution.
see more here at Macleans blog - Kady O'Malley ...
UPDATED: Fear and libelling on the Etobicoke Centre campaign trail: Wrzesnewskyj vs. Kuh
inaccuracies. How many inaccuracies? Enough inaccuracies for a Judge to stop its distribution.see more here at Macleans blog - Kady O'Malley ...
UPDATED: Fear and libelling on the Etobicoke Centre campaign trail: Wrzesnewskyj vs. Kuh
Gay Conservative candidate looses cool at Debate
Conservative Candidate looses his cool...
Xtra West hosts an all candidates meeting on queer issues in Vancouver...
Lorne Mayencourt former provincial Liberal MLA running as a Conservative in Vancouver Centre goes after voters, naming some, attacking others and loses his cool on the issue of strategic voting...
my note: Mayencourt is a gay man that has failed to connect with the queer communities in Vancouver.
Will your Liberal still be Liberal October 15?
It's so easy to cross the floor...
We all know about the horse trading that went on in Parliament over the last three years. Belinda Stronagh moving from the Tories to the Liberals, right into a cushy cabinet post, David Emerson from the Liberals to the Conservatives. Scott Brison from Tory to Liberal, then there is the failed attempts by the Liberals and the Conservatives to get Chuck Cadman.
There have been several more that have crossed the floor in the last couple of years. Oddly enough it has been just two parties that partake in this, the Conservatives and the Liberals. The Green Party accepted Mr. Harris from BC as a member when he left the Liberals in the last parliament.
Only one party has a position against this kind of betrayal of local voters. The NDP introduced a bill in this last session to prevent crossing the floor. The Liberals and Conservatives voted against this legislation.
So as we go to vote on Tuesday, keep in mind that some of the Liberal and or Conservative candidates you are voting for could easily cross the floor to accept a cabinet post.
Listen to the Liberal response and the New Democrat response to a question crossing the floor...
Its clear we are headed to a minority government and likely Mr. Harper leading it. In the battle to hold onto power, to get a few extra votes, Mr. Harper may entice another Liberal to join his ranks. Who will it be? There are many Liberals that hold similar positions to the Conservatives on social justice issues like the right to choose, gay marriage, arts and culture and criminal justice.
These Liberals have voted with Stephen Harper more than Stephane Dion! In the last parliament the Liberal en mass voted on 43 pieces of legislation Mr. Harper wanted passed. Some Liberals voted even more than that with the Conservatives. They kept Mr. Harper in power by supporting the Conservative budgets and key pieces of Harper's draconian justice and immigration bills.
This election has been a breakthrough for the NDP. They are up in polling numbers from 2006, the media generally feel Layton has run the best campaign, and finally, the NDP numbers are not falling off as we come into election day. The Liberals have had Bob Rae toss everything he can at NDP supporters and hasn't managed to get them to budge.
Its going to be a barn burner election night.
Labels:
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10.11.2008
'Nobody's Baby'
NDP vote staying put...
"As of last night we have six point gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals (33% to 27%). Conservative support remains unchanged but there has been movement from the Grits to the NDP (who we now have at 22% nationally),"- Nik Nanos is the President and founder of Nanos Research
It looks as if the NDP are keeping their vote going into the final days of this election. There is no fear of a Harper majority, Layton has run a credible campaign resulting in the Liberal's scare tactics being ignored by voters.
This in the Toronto Star according to La Presse...
Montreal daily La Presse is projecting a Conservative minority with 140 seats, Liberals with 60, NDP 50 and Bloc 57 – based on a poll of 1,500 Canadians. At dissolution, Conservatives had 127 , Liberals 95, Bloc 48, NDP 30, independents four, with four seats vacant.These are scary numbers for Stephane Dion and will prove very difficult for him to stay on as leader after this. The NDP will be practically equal to the Liberals if this scenario proves correct. All the more reason for New Democrats to hold onto their vote this election. The Liberals will not have enough seats to form a coalition against Stephen Harper. Harper will have to tread lightly, unless of course his old friend, Stephane Dion decides to vote with him again.
In fact in the days ahead, it is conceivable that the NDP pass the Liberals in the numbers of seats.
"It all comes down to Ontario, where we see no signs of NDP erosion yet, the support quite strong and consistent. As I said earlier, the Greens are fading (Ipsos agrees), but it hasn't helped the Liberals in the least. The trend is Conservatives coming back, Liberals stagnant or fading somewhat, NDP vote stubborn. Not exactly what I'd like to see at this stage, but then again, the swings over the past few weeks confirm a wavering electorate, no one can claim to have cemented anything. Ontario still looks impossible to predict, many ridings may well come down to a few hundred votes, which means minor movement could translate to massive impact." - Steve V at Far and Wide
Steve is right. Ontario is up for grabs and no one knows where it will go. The Liberals are set to lose a couple of big names/seats. Gerard Kennedy, the Dion maker, is trying to win his old provincial seat against a very popular NDP MP, Peggy Nash, who won the seat from long time Liberal in 2006. The betting is Nash will take it. In the other NDP-Liberal race is in Beaches East York. Liberal MP, Maria Minna has been there since 1993 and finds herself facing down one of Ontario's most effective MPP's in Marion Churley. Churley has a good chance of taking minna out this time, its too close to call that one.
John Crosby's old girlfriend Sheila Copps has been resurrected in Hamilton, a city she reigned supreme in during another lifetime. Ms Copps uses the regular Liberal talking point which has been ineffective to date, the one where they say 'a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives.' The Conservatives are not a threat in Hamilton. Its an NDP - Liberal race and in Hamilton all three NDP candidates happen to be incumbents. On Election night, Hamilton will remain Orange.
The last race I want to refer too is in Vancouver Centre. This one has Hedi Fry Liberal MP since 1993, in her toughest fight so far. Its a three way race with Lorne Mayencourt, former MLA for the Westend of Vancouver running for the Conservatives. Lorne will syphon votes away from Hedi in the more wealthy areas of the riding and from the well-to-do gay boys. The NDP have brought in Michael Byers, a renown researcher from UBC and adviser to Jack Layton on Foreign Affairs. Byers has a big team helping him come up the middle to take this seat with support coming from the downtown core and fashionable Kitsilano.
The race is far from over, the only thing we know for certain is that Harper will have the most seats in Parliament. The question is, what will the make of the seat count between the NDP, Liberals and Green's (if they get a seat) and will they have enough to form a coalition in the end.
Forget the Bloc, they wont form a coalition with anyone. So NDP and Liberal will have to get along. Finally, a note to the Liberal party, The NDP is 'nobody's baby!'
10.10.2008
We are big boys, get over it
I choose not to play the video of Dion and the do over video. I did so because I felt for him at that time. I recall the media going afterBob Skelly in the BC election many years ago, refusing to let him have a do over. It killed the NDP then.
I have little sympathy for all the bloggers going crazy about this. The holier than though Liberal bloggers that have jumped on this and screamed bias in the media, the mean Mike Duffy, the nasty conservatives etc.
We are big boys in this work. If New Democrats screamed every time they were portrayed in a poor light they would be doing nothing but whining about the media. I can cite article after article, issue after issue where the media have been less than fair in their coverage of NDP or Green candidates.
Some Liberal bloggers have been much nastier than the do over video is, making a practise of being absurdly scandal driven. I have also seen some New Democrat bloggers get a little high over this video and they have expressed their reasons. Its a news story and fair comment to do so in this blogger world. I can see what would happen if it were Jack Layton asking for a do over.
If Harper asked for a do over to adjust his sweater or to revise what he said, you and I know there are a ton of bloggers and politicians that would be leaping for joy congratulating the media for showing it.
All that said, I don't care for much of the main stream media's penchant to look for an exciting clip or statement and blow it up.
recommend this post
I have little sympathy for all the bloggers going crazy about this. The holier than though Liberal bloggers that have jumped on this and screamed bias in the media, the mean Mike Duffy, the nasty conservatives etc.
We are big boys in this work. If New Democrats screamed every time they were portrayed in a poor light they would be doing nothing but whining about the media. I can cite article after article, issue after issue where the media have been less than fair in their coverage of NDP or Green candidates.
Some Liberal bloggers have been much nastier than the do over video is, making a practise of being absurdly scandal driven. I have also seen some New Democrat bloggers get a little high over this video and they have expressed their reasons. Its a news story and fair comment to do so in this blogger world. I can see what would happen if it were Jack Layton asking for a do over.
If Harper asked for a do over to adjust his sweater or to revise what he said, you and I know there are a ton of bloggers and politicians that would be leaping for joy congratulating the media for showing it.
All that said, I don't care for much of the main stream media's penchant to look for an exciting clip or statement and blow it up.
recommend this post
10.09.2008
"Mr. Rae, I Respectfully Disagree," Devin Johnston
Devin spells it out well...
Dear Mr. Rae, I Respectfully Disagree
Posted by Devin on October 9th, 2008
Last night, a friend forwarded me an email from the Liberal Party email list. The email consisted of former Ontario Premier Bob Rae attacking Jack Layton and the NDP. Mr. Rae is doing what Liberals are best at: bullying voters into supporting the Liberals instead of trying to win on their own merits. In what follows, I will correct Mr. Rae on the numerous infelicities in his email. I believe that he should publicly retract it and apologize to the NDP. more here
Liberals and Cons fail us with Afghanistan
Its official, Canada is dumping more money into Afghanistan than it spends on Housing, transit, and Childcare combined.
Canada has spent at least $7.7 billion to $10.5 billion on costs related to its mission in Afghanistan in the past six years, and may spend $13.9 billion to $18.1 billion on the mission by the end of the 2010-11 budget year, according to The Fiscal Impact of the Canadian Mission in Afghanistan tabled by parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page on Thursday.
That is an enormous number. As i stated above, that is much more than we have spent on building affordable housing, expanding and repairing public transit and Childcare.
We may have spent much more than the amounts Parliaments Budget Officer says he can account for due to a lack of government consistency and transparency. The report goes onto say they likely understate the full costs of the mission.
These costs do not include the those of the the day to day military costs such as salaries
The figures released Thursday are incremental costs — that is, they do not include costs such as salaries that would be incurred anyway.
The report does go onto to criticize both the Liberal and Conservative governments for their lack of accountability and openness in reporting budget numbers. Page says, "To date, Parliament has been provided with only limited information, often after the fact, on these costs, and has not been given estimates on future costs that may be incurred in the support of the veterans of these conflicts."
Annual cost overruns for the mission up until 2006-07 ranged from 29 per cent in 2002-03 to a whopping 310 per cent ($321 million) in 2005-06, based on planned versus actual spending figures.
The Harper government campaigned on its promise to be more accountable and open in government spending. Who knew before this report of the cost overruns either under the Liberals or the Conservatives. Both these parties have hid the costs either deliberately or through ineptness.
In fact it has been impossible to get a cost for the war in Afghanistan prior to this report from the Parliament Budget Officer and even he says that the costs are much likely much more than those he has given us.
Two years ago Jack Layton called for NATO and the government of Afghanistan to begin talks with the Taliban as it was clear a war effort would not be winnable. Layton was laughed at, yet an unusal ally supporting a the same view was republican sentaor trent lott after his visit to the country.
Recently the commander of the British forces has said that its vital that talks begin as the fighting can not win. This is confirmation of Layton's position made clear two years ago. We are spending Billions on a war we can not win. We may as well be pour the money into the toilet.
Where could we spend these incremental dollars in the next few years. At best we will see another eight billion dollars poured into a losing war effort in the next 4 years.
Worst of all, most shameful of all, are the 98 Canadians, including one diplomat killed in this war. They will never come back, their families have lost more than any of us. This was a bad political decision to go into afghanistan and its been made much more so because we have decided to stay there.
You can read the whole report: Report of the Parliamentary Budget Officer: Fiscal impact of the Afghan mission
see also:
recommend this post
Canada has spent at least $7.7 billion to $10.5 billion on costs related to its mission in Afghanistan in the past six years, and may spend $13.9 billion to $18.1 billion on the mission by the end of the 2010-11 budget year, according to The Fiscal Impact of the Canadian Mission in Afghanistan tabled by parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page on Thursday.
That is an enormous number. As i stated above, that is much more than we have spent on building affordable housing, expanding and repairing public transit and Childcare.
We may have spent much more than the amounts Parliaments Budget Officer says he can account for due to a lack of government consistency and transparency. The report goes onto say they likely understate the full costs of the mission.
These costs do not include the those of the the day to day military costs such as salaries
The figures released Thursday are incremental costs — that is, they do not include costs such as salaries that would be incurred anyway.
The report does go onto to criticize both the Liberal and Conservative governments for their lack of accountability and openness in reporting budget numbers. Page says, "To date, Parliament has been provided with only limited information, often after the fact, on these costs, and has not been given estimates on future costs that may be incurred in the support of the veterans of these conflicts."
Annual cost overruns for the mission up until 2006-07 ranged from 29 per cent in 2002-03 to a whopping 310 per cent ($321 million) in 2005-06, based on planned versus actual spending figures.
The Harper government campaigned on its promise to be more accountable and open in government spending. Who knew before this report of the cost overruns either under the Liberals or the Conservatives. Both these parties have hid the costs either deliberately or through ineptness.
In fact it has been impossible to get a cost for the war in Afghanistan prior to this report from the Parliament Budget Officer and even he says that the costs are much likely much more than those he has given us.
Two years ago Jack Layton called for NATO and the government of Afghanistan to begin talks with the Taliban as it was clear a war effort would not be winnable. Layton was laughed at, yet an unusal ally supporting a the same view was republican sentaor trent lott after his visit to the country.
Recently the commander of the British forces has said that its vital that talks begin as the fighting can not win. This is confirmation of Layton's position made clear two years ago. We are spending Billions on a war we can not win. We may as well be pour the money into the toilet.
Where could we spend these incremental dollars in the next few years. At best we will see another eight billion dollars poured into a losing war effort in the next 4 years.
Worst of all, most shameful of all, are the 98 Canadians, including one diplomat killed in this war. They will never come back, their families have lost more than any of us. This was a bad political decision to go into afghanistan and its been made much more so because we have decided to stay there.
You can read the whole report: Report of the Parliamentary Budget Officer: Fiscal impact of the Afghan mission
see also:
Afghanistan by the Numbers
recommend this post
Labels:
2008 election,
Conservative,
Dion,
Harper,
Layton,
Liberal,
NDP
Green Party Activist voting NDP
Dauncey wrote the Green Party's climate platform.
A well known environmentalist and respected activist Guy Dauncey has said he will be voting NDP in his riding and has provided a list of people to vote for on Vancouver Island in order to stop Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. If all the pro environment listed below by Guy are elected it would also see Vancouver Island return all women MP's. That is a significant and achievable goal.
Here is Guy's reasoning and list ...
Dear Friends,Voting on Vancouver IslandI know it hurts to vote against your instinct, to make that all-important democratic tick for a party other than the one you believe in.Under our antiquated, colonial, discriminatory, stupid, undemocratic, first-past-the-post voting system, however, when we split the progressive vote not two but three ways, every vote for a candidate who has little chance of winning makes Conservatives cheer.They are laughing all the way to a possible majority government, packed with Conservative MPs many of whom, If the disgraced MP Maxime Bernier is anything to go by, think climate change is a joke, a Rocky Horror Show of doom and gloom dreamed up by us eco-freaks.I have been a member of the Green Party in Britain and Canada, on and off, for 35 years. I wrote our Canadian Green Party's climate platform, that was awarded the highest rating by the Pembina Institute. And I am urging all people of a progressive hue not to vote Green, but to vote strategically, to put aside party loyalty for greater loyalty to our Planet Earth.We absolutely must stop the Conservatives from getting back into power. A Liberal/NDP/Green coalition government (hoping Elizabeth May gets elected) would get Canada back on track with committed action on climate change.In Vancouver Island North, this clearly means voting for Catherine Bell, NDP -In Nanaimo-Alberni, this clearly means voting for Zeni Maartman, NDP -In Nanaimo-Cowichan, this clearly means voting for Jean Crowder, NDP -In Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, it's a close race between Keith Martin (Liberal) and Jennifer Burgis (NDP)In Saanich-Gulf Islands, this clearly means voting for Briony Penn, LiberalIn Victoria, it clearly means voting for Denise Savoie, NDPThis is also what 120 of Canada's top climate scientists are urging us to do - vote strategically - see http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/10/07/ scientists-environment.html Just as a comment - if all these candidates won, with Jennifer Burgis in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, 100% of Vancouver Island's MPs in Ottawa would be women - which would be amazing.To all those committed Greens who think this means I am betraying my deepest principles - I apologize. Our undemocratic voting system turns good friends into bickering enemies, which is a drag. I have good green friends who are running for the Green Party, and I'd love to support them - but it just does not make sense.And yes, we all want to see Proportional Voting in Canada.We will NEVER get this with a returned Conservative government. But we MAY have a slim to good chance with a new progressive coalition government.with best wishes,Guy DaunceyVictoria
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