Budget 2011 Canada - Who will win the day?

Tomorrow is budget day in Canada. Jim Flaherty the Finance Minister will introduce the budget in hopes it will cause the Government to go down instead of the expected confidence motion to come after his government is found in Contempt of Parliament.

The Liberals and Bloc have indicated they will vote against the budget.  For the Liberals it would be the first time they have done this since Harper was elected.  The Bloc will of course hold their fire as they await news that a deal has been reached with the Quebec Government to compensate them for the conversion costs associated with the HST.  Quebec did not get the same money as Ontario or BC when they combined the provincial sales tax with the GST.

That leaves the NDP.  Jack Layton, leader of the NDP has put a few things on the table.  If the government meets the goals set by the NDP they would vote for the budget.  Some of the items put forward by the NDP include, removal of the GST on home heating fuel, Increases to Seniors income (GIS) and changes to the Canada Pension plan for seniors, and the continuation and funding of the ecoHome renovation program.

Barring a self detonating bomb in the budget and Harper meets Layton's requests, we may see the NDP support Harper on the budget.  There is of course lots of room for Layton to dismiss any efforts by the Harper Govt on these issues as being too little and or the big deal breaker of inclusion of significant corporate tax cuts.  We won't know for a couple of days what will happen.

In the interim Harper and company along with the Liberals will blast the NDP until they vote one way or the other.  Harper by saying he gave them much of what they asked for and Ignatieff  because of all the heat he has taken from the NDP for supporting Harper. 

Its a mine field in the House of Commons right now.  One that will easily blow up on which ever party fails to step carefully.

update: The NDP list presented to Prime Minister Harper.

Jack Layton and the New Democrats have put forward a set of practical, affordable proposals – all focused on taking pressure off your family budget:

• Take the federal sales tax off skyrocketing home heating bills and restore the EcoEnergy Retrofit program.
• Increase the Guaranteed Income Supplement for our most vulnerable seniors.
• Strengthen the Canada Pension Plan we all rely on.
• Hire more doctors and nurses across Canada.

Childcare funding, another promise

Child care is bandied about every election. The Liberals promise it, like they have since 1993. The Conservatives under Harper say they know a better way and send parents $100 for every child.

The trouble is these parties make child care a carrot for voters. The carrot was held out there by Brian Mulroney back in 1989 and became a central part of the Jean Chretien Liberals infamous "Red Book". Each of the following four elections the Liberals promised a National Day care plan. Harper said he was going to give money to parents, thus ending the chance of a "real" child care program.

Paul Martin implemented part of a program, thanks to a budget the NDP helped him with.

Electoral politics took over again and Martin decided to call an election. Martin introduced a budget that the NDP told them they would not support. The budget called for 50 billion dollars of tax cuts for big business. The previous Martin budget was also to include the tax cut, but in turn for the NDP support, Martin delayed the plan to cut corporate taxes.

Martin was well aware his budget would be defeated. He was counting on it. Martin and the Liberals felt they had nothing to lose. If the NDP supported the budget, they could continue in power and their corporate tax cuts would go ahead. The National Child care plan could then be implemented albeit much slower in its implementation. If the Liberals lost a budget vote, Martin could count on the carrots, a national day care program, a new deal with first nations.

People didn't even sniff at Martin's carrots. The old tried and true enticements did not work. Martin lost and the Liberals have voted for every single Conservative budget (some by pretending they weren't even there) Harper has brought in. Budgets that have stopped funding of child care, that have cut taxes to large corporations, and reduced the ability of the federal government to provide services.

The next election will see the Liberal party promising child care again and the big one will be, no new taxes. The Conservatives will promise no new taxes and likely promise not to cut anything.

No party elected in Canada can promise we will get anywhere without new revenue, and tax revenue is likely the only place to get it.