B.C. Liberals have one thing going for them. NDP leader, Carole James, who has lost two elections and her approval rating of only 27 per cent. The NDP itself is sitting at about 49% which would likely see them win close to 70% if not more of the seats with the first past the post system.
The NDP enormous lead will not be there once the Liberals elect a new leader. Especially if that new leader is seen as a moderate and cancels the HST referendum because he or she has decided to end the HST. That will remove a lot of the animosity toward the BC Liberals. Campbell will be painted as the villain and the race tightens up, possibly allowing the Liberals a statistical shot of winning.
That is the best scenario for the BC Libs.
The NDP is much stronger now in large part due to the HST. Adding to the NDP's strength is the Liberals budget lie, the BC Rail scandal, and the Liberals 10 plus years in government. The NDP can rely on its traditional support of 30 to 35% and will need to maintain 46 to 49% to actually win.
To do any of this the NDP will have to move Carole James' personal approval rating up from 27% to north of 40% or have their own leadership contest and do it before summer 2011. There are no shortage of good candidates for the job. The NDP leadership make over can't happen too soon.
The other big factors will be the economy, things look to be getting a little better but with the Liberals bringing in another tax cut, they will need to find 600 million dollars fast. Add to that lost 600 million the loss from the HST. You can see there is a billion plus dollars to be made up through an improving economy or big cuts to government programs and services.
Finally, the recall campaigns. Knocking off five to eight MLAs and replacing most of them with New Democrats will make things much easier for the NDP. They need to happen asap before the Liberals can put a new leader in place.