Its a slow ending, but there is an end in sight for the Ontario Liberals and Dalton McGuinty. The question is who will it be, the Ontario Progressive Conservatives or the Ontario New Democrats.
The McGuinty team were playing big ass politics when they choose a sitting Conservative MPP to appoint as head of Workplace Safety and Insurance Board of Ontario (WSIB). The move opened up a seat in the Provincial Legislature. If the McGuinty Liberals won the seat they would have the slimmest of possible majority-like power. They would be tied with the opposition in seats and the speaker (also a Liberal) would then break all tie votes in favour of the Liberals.
Polling at the time the decision was made to undertake this sneaky, albeit legal, road to a majority gave the Liberals hope. After all the took out a very popular local MPP. What they were not counting was a couple of other factors. They underestimated the public's growing interest in the NDP under the the leadership of Andrea Horwath. Horwath has consistently out polled her opponents, McGuinty and Tim Hudak. They underestimated the NDP's choice of Catherine Fife, a woman that understands the education file very well and the Liberals hand picked fight with teachers is playing into to her hands.
The Conservatives have done well in their choice of a candidate.Tracey Weiler, a former RIM executive and Wilfrid Laurier University instructor, has done a great job of holding Tory support.
We have all seen it coming. The Liberals are a vanishing breed. They are about to get tossed in BC next May, they are very tiny parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, losing ground in Atlantic Canada and last election lost more ground to the NDP.
In Kitchener-Waterloo its the a three way fight. The NDP could take the seat. The Liberals will try to scare us all. The usual line about a vote for the NDP will be a vote for Tim Hudak. It didn't work in last years provincial election and it wont work in this by-election.
Progressives can now become real progressives with a legit chance of succeeding in Kitchener-Waterloo and in the next provincial election likely a year away at most.
see the Toronto Star: