'Nobody's Baby'

NDP vote staying put...

"As of last night we have six point gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals (33% to 27%). Conservative support remains unchanged but there has been movement from the Grits to the NDP (who we now have at 22% nationally),"- Nik Nanos is the President and founder of Nanos Research

It looks as if the NDP are keeping their vote going into the final days of this election. There is no fear of a Harper majority, Layton has run a credible campaign resulting in the Liberal's scare tactics being ignored by voters.

This in the Toronto Star according to La Presse...

Montreal daily La Presse is projecting a Conservative minority with 140 seats, Liberals with 60, NDP 50 and Bloc 57 – based on a poll of 1,500 Canadians. At dissolution, Conservatives had 127 , Liberals 95, Bloc 48, NDP 30, independents four, with four seats vacant.

These are scary numbers for Stephane Dion and will prove very difficult for him to stay on as leader after this. The NDP will be practically equal to the Liberals if this scenario proves correct. All the more reason for New Democrats to hold onto their vote this election. The Liberals will not have enough seats to form a coalition against Stephen Harper. Harper will have to tread lightly, unless of course his old friend, Stephane Dion decides to vote with him again.

In fact in the days ahead, it is conceivable that the NDP pass the Liberals in the numbers of seats.

"It all comes down to Ontario, where we see no signs of NDP erosion yet, the support quite strong and consistent. As I said earlier, the Greens are fading (Ipsos agrees), but it hasn't helped the Liberals in the least. The trend is Conservatives coming back, Liberals stagnant or fading somewhat, NDP vote stubborn. Not exactly what I'd like to see at this stage, but then again, the swings over the past few weeks confirm a wavering electorate, no one can claim to have cemented anything. Ontario still looks impossible to predict, many ridings may well come down to a few hundred votes, which means minor movement could translate to massive impact." - Steve V at Far and Wide

Steve is right. Ontario is up for grabs and no one knows where it will go. The Liberals are set to lose a couple of big names/seats. Gerard Kennedy, the Dion maker, is trying to win his old provincial seat against a very popular NDP MP, Peggy Nash, who won the seat from long time Liberal in 2006. The betting is Nash will take it. In the other NDP-Liberal race is in Beaches East York. Liberal MP, Maria Minna has been there since 1993 and finds herself facing down one of Ontario's most effective MPP's in Marion Churley. Churley has a good chance of taking minna out this time, its too close to call that one.

John Crosby's old girlfriend Sheila Copps has been resurrected in Hamilton, a city she reigned supreme in during another lifetime. Ms Copps uses the regular Liberal talking point which has been ineffective to date, the one where they say 'a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives.' The Conservatives are not a threat in Hamilton. Its an NDP - Liberal race and in Hamilton all three NDP candidates happen to be incumbents. On Election night, Hamilton will remain Orange.

The last race I want to refer too is in Vancouver Centre. This one has Hedi Fry Liberal MP since 1993, in her toughest fight so far. Its a three way race with Lorne Mayencourt, former MLA for the Westend of Vancouver running for the Conservatives. Lorne will syphon votes away from Hedi in the more wealthy areas of the riding and from the well-to-do gay boys. The NDP have brought in Michael Byers, a renown researcher from UBC and adviser to Jack Layton on Foreign Affairs. Byers has a big team helping him come up the middle to take this seat with support coming from the downtown core and fashionable Kitsilano.

The race is far from over, the only thing we know for certain is that Harper will have the most seats in Parliament. The question is, what will the make of the seat count between the NDP, Liberals and Green's (if they get a seat) and will they have enough to form a coalition in the end.

Forget the Bloc, they wont form a coalition with anyone. So NDP and Liberal will have to get along. Finally, a note to the Liberal party, The NDP is 'nobody's baby!'

We are big boys, get over it

I choose not to play the video of Dion and the do over video. I did so because I felt for him at that time. I recall the media going afterBob Skelly in the BC election many years ago, refusing to let him have a do over. It killed the NDP then.

I have little sympathy for all the bloggers going crazy about this. The holier than though Liberal bloggers that have jumped on this and screamed bias in the media, the mean Mike Duffy, the nasty conservatives etc.

We are big boys in this work. If New Democrats screamed every time they were portrayed in a poor light they would be doing nothing but whining about the media. I can cite article after article, issue after issue where the media have been less than fair in their coverage of NDP or Green candidates.

Some Liberal bloggers have been much nastier than the do over video is, making a practise of being absurdly scandal driven. I have also seen some New Democrat bloggers get a little high over this video and they have expressed their reasons. Its a news story and fair comment to do so in this blogger world. I can see what would happen if it were Jack Layton asking for a do over.

If Harper asked for a do over to adjust his sweater or to revise what he said, you and I know there are a ton of bloggers and politicians that would be leaping for joy congratulating the media for showing it.

All that said, I don't care for much of the main stream media's penchant to look for an exciting clip or statement and blow it up.

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"Mr. Rae, I Respectfully Disagree," Devin Johnston

Devin spells it out well...

Dear Mr. Rae, I Respectfully Disagree

Posted by Devin on October 9th, 2008

Last night, a friend forwarded me an email from the Liberal Party email list. The email consisted of former Ontario Premier Bob Rae attacking Jack Layton and the NDP. Mr. Rae is doing what Liberals are best at: bullying voters into supporting the Liberals instead of trying to win on their own merits. In what follows, I will correct Mr. Rae on the numerous infelicities in his email. I believe that he should publicly retract it and apologize to the NDP. more here

Liberals and Cons fail us with Afghanistan

Its official, Canada is dumping more money into Afghanistan than it spends on Housing, transit, and Childcare combined.

Canada has spent at least $7.7 billion to $10.5 billion on costs related to its mission in Afghanistan in the past six years, and may spend $13.9 billion to $18.1 billion on the mission by the end of the 2010-11 budget year, according to The Fiscal Impact of the Canadian Mission in Afghanistan tabled by parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page on Thursday.

That is an enormous number. As i stated above, that is much more than we have spent on building affordable housing, expanding and repairing public transit and Childcare.

We may have spent much more than the amounts Parliaments Budget Officer says he can account for due to a lack of government consistency and transparency. The report goes onto say they likely understate the full costs of the mission.

These costs do not include the those of the the day to day military costs such as salaries

The figures released Thursday are incremental costs — that is, they do not include costs such as salaries that would be incurred anyway.

The report does go onto to criticize both the Liberal and Conservative governments for their lack of accountability and openness in reporting budget numbers. Page says, "To date, Parliament has been provided with only limited information, often after the fact, on these costs, and has not been given estimates on future costs that may be incurred in the support of the veterans of these conflicts."

Annual cost overruns for the mission up until 2006-07 ranged from 29 per cent in 2002-03 to a whopping 310 per cent ($321 million) in 2005-06, based on planned versus actual spending figures.

The Harper government campaigned on its promise to be more accountable and open in government spending. Who knew before this report of the cost overruns either under the Liberals or the Conservatives. Both these parties have hid the costs either deliberately or through ineptness.

In fact it has been impossible to get a cost for the war in Afghanistan prior to this report from the Parliament Budget Officer and even he says that the costs are much likely much more than those he has given us.

Two years ago Jack Layton called for NATO and the government of Afghanistan to begin talks with the Taliban as it was clear a war effort would not be winnable. Layton was laughed at, yet an unusal ally supporting a the same view was republican sentaor trent lott after his visit to the country.

Recently the commander of the British forces has said that its vital that talks begin as the fighting can not win. This is confirmation of Layton's position made clear two years ago. We are spending Billions on a war we can not win. We may as well be pour the money into the toilet.

Where could we spend these incremental dollars in the next few years. At best we will see another eight billion dollars poured into a losing war effort in the next 4 years.

Worst of all, most shameful of all, are the 98 Canadians, including one diplomat killed in this war. They will never come back, their families have lost more than any of us. This was a bad political decision to go into afghanistan and its been made much more so because we have decided to stay there.

You can read the whole report: Report of the Parliamentary Budget Officer: Fiscal impact of the Afghan mission

see also:

Afghanistan by the Numbers

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Green Party Activist voting NDP

Dauncey wrote the Green Party's climate platform.

A well known environmentalist and respected activist Guy Dauncey has said he will be voting NDP in his riding and has provided a list of people to vote for on Vancouver Island in order to stop Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. If all the pro environment listed below by Guy are elected it would also see Vancouver Island return all women MP's. That is a significant and achievable goal.

Here is Guy's reasoning and list ...

Dear Friends,

Voting on Vancouver Island

I know it hurts to vote against your instinct, to make that all-important democratic tick for a party other than the one you believe in.

Under our antiquated, colonial, discriminatory, stupid, undemocratic, first-past-the-post voting system, however, when we split the progressive vote not two but three ways, every vote for a candidate who has little chance of winning makes Conservatives cheer.

They are laughing all the way to a possible majority government, packed with Conservative MPs many of whom, If the disgraced MP Maxime Bernier is anything to go by, think climate change is a joke, a Rocky Horror Show of doom and gloom dreamed up by us eco-freaks.

I have been a member of the Green Party in Britain and Canada, on and off, for 35 years. I wrote our Canadian Green Party's climate platform, that was awarded the highest rating by the Pembina Institute. And I am urging all people of a progressive hue not to vote Green, but to vote strategically, to put aside party loyalty for greater loyalty to our Planet Earth.

We absolutely must stop the Conservatives from getting back into power. A Liberal/NDP/Green coalition government (hoping Elizabeth May gets elected) would get Canada back on track with committed action on climate change.

In Vancouver Island North, this clearly means voting for Catherine Bell, NDP -

In Nanaimo-Alberni, this clearly means voting for Zeni Maartman, NDP -

In Nanaimo-Cowichan, this clearly means voting for Jean Crowder, NDP -

In Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, it's a close race between Keith Martin (Liberal) and Jennifer Burgis (NDP)

In Saanich-Gulf Islands, this clearly means voting for Briony Penn, Liberal

In Victoria, it clearly means voting for Denise Savoie, NDP

This is also what 120 of Canada's top climate scientists are urging us to do - vote strategically - see http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/10/07/scientists-environment.html

Just as a comment - if all these candidates won, with Jennifer Burgis in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, 100% of Vancouver Island's MPs in Ottawa would be women - which would be amazing.

To all those committed Greens who think this means I am betraying my deepest principles - I apologize. Our undemocratic voting system turns good friends into bickering enemies, which is a drag. I have good green friends who are running for the Green Party, and I'd love to support them - but it just does not make sense.

And yes, we all want to see Proportional Voting in Canada.

We will NEVER get this with a returned Conservative government. But we MAY have a slim to good chance with a new progressive coalition government.

with best wishes,

Guy Dauncey

Victoria

www.earthfuture.com

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Dion sings for your vote

The unDion boys

Ladies and gentleman, may I present the Dion pleadings, a ritual Liberal election happening...

Its not unusual for us to be this close to election day and the Liberals move into high gear, ie, vote for us or the sky will fall. They make the plea to New Democrats and often as not in the past it has worked for the liberals. Yet after the election, all those progressive values that needed protection from the big bad Tories, well, they weren't real promises the liberals meant to keep this time, they hold that as a carrot for the next election. See how that works, I bet you do and so do many more people this time out.

The Liberals have said we need the progressives in this election to win. That's code for we need you to vote liberal so we can save our behinds. They go into Saskatoon where a liberal doesn't stand a chance of being elected school monitor let alone MP. Bob Rae says vote Liberal, the sky is falling and then runs out of town. What earthly good does it do for the liberals to send Bob Rae Saskatoon when we all know the NDP is the progressive choice. Because this vote progressive is really only a one way street for the liberals.

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"I didn't say it was dysfunctional" - Harper

dysfunctional

"I didn't say it was dysfunctional, did I?" asks Stephen Harper.
"Oh Stephen didn't your mother say to you, never tell a lie and if you do, make sure you don't do it when you are on television?"

" Ummm. Looks like you did and that does not look good on you. I bet if your Mom wasn't so worried about her finances right now, she would wash your mouth out with soap and then give you a good spanking. Am I right Stephen?"

" You know I am."




H/T to People powered politics or the better PPP

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Don't Vote, I dare you...

Don't Vote, I dare you,

awesome video again..., thanks Marky H.
in fact I double dare you not to vote

there i got you!

America, God bless you for not voting
it makes me so happy to see you care enough not to vote
I mean, its not like you have to vote...







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