NDP vote staying put...
"As of last night we have six point gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals (33% to 27%). Conservative support remains unchanged but there has been movement from the Grits to the NDP (who we now have at 22% nationally),"- Nik Nanos is the President and founder of Nanos Research
It looks as if the NDP are keeping their vote going into the final days of this election. There is no fear of a Harper majority, Layton has run a credible campaign resulting in the Liberal's scare tactics being ignored by voters.
This in the Toronto Star according to La Presse...
Montreal daily La Presse is projecting a Conservative minority with 140 seats, Liberals with 60, NDP 50 and Bloc 57 – based on a poll of 1,500 Canadians. At dissolution, Conservatives had 127 , Liberals 95, Bloc 48, NDP 30, independents four, with four seats vacant.These are scary numbers for Stephane Dion and will prove very difficult for him to stay on as leader after this. The NDP will be practically equal to the Liberals if this scenario proves correct. All the more reason for New Democrats to hold onto their vote this election. The Liberals will not have enough seats to form a coalition against Stephen Harper. Harper will have to tread lightly, unless of course his old friend, Stephane Dion decides to vote with him again.
In fact in the days ahead, it is conceivable that the NDP pass the Liberals in the numbers of seats.
"It all comes down to Ontario, where we see no signs of NDP erosion yet, the support quite strong and consistent. As I said earlier, the Greens are fading (Ipsos agrees), but it hasn't helped the Liberals in the least. The trend is Conservatives coming back, Liberals stagnant or fading somewhat, NDP vote stubborn. Not exactly what I'd like to see at this stage, but then again, the swings over the past few weeks confirm a wavering electorate, no one can claim to have cemented anything. Ontario still looks impossible to predict, many ridings may well come down to a few hundred votes, which means minor movement could translate to massive impact." - Steve V at Far and Wide
Steve is right. Ontario is up for grabs and no one knows where it will go. The Liberals are set to lose a couple of big names/seats. Gerard Kennedy, the Dion maker, is trying to win his old provincial seat against a very popular NDP MP, Peggy Nash, who won the seat from long time Liberal in 2006. The betting is Nash will take it. In the other NDP-Liberal race is in Beaches East York. Liberal MP, Maria Minna has been there since 1993 and finds herself facing down one of Ontario's most effective MPP's in Marion Churley. Churley has a good chance of taking minna out this time, its too close to call that one.
John Crosby's old girlfriend Sheila Copps has been resurrected in Hamilton, a city she reigned supreme in during another lifetime. Ms Copps uses the regular Liberal talking point which has been ineffective to date, the one where they say 'a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives.' The Conservatives are not a threat in Hamilton. Its an NDP - Liberal race and in Hamilton all three NDP candidates happen to be incumbents. On Election night, Hamilton will remain Orange.
The last race I want to refer too is in Vancouver Centre. This one has Hedi Fry Liberal MP since 1993, in her toughest fight so far. Its a three way race with Lorne Mayencourt, former MLA for the Westend of Vancouver running for the Conservatives. Lorne will syphon votes away from Hedi in the more wealthy areas of the riding and from the well-to-do gay boys. The NDP have brought in Michael Byers, a renown researcher from UBC and adviser to Jack Layton on Foreign Affairs. Byers has a big team helping him come up the middle to take this seat with support coming from the downtown core and fashionable Kitsilano.
The race is far from over, the only thing we know for certain is that Harper will have the most seats in Parliament. The question is, what will the make of the seat count between the NDP, Liberals and Green's (if they get a seat) and will they have enough to form a coalition in the end.
Forget the Bloc, they wont form a coalition with anyone. So NDP and Liberal will have to get along. Finally, a note to the Liberal party, The NDP is 'nobody's baby!'