Deficit looming

Parliament dysfunctional?
It was his control of our cheque book...

It looks like we are headed to a deficit next year and maybe even this year. Now we know why Harper decided to go to an election at this time. He was protecting himself. It wasn't Parliament that was dysfunctional, it was his control of our cheque book that mandated an election.

The Toronto Star is reporting a possible 10 billion dollar shortfall for 2009-10. That would be the first deficit since the mid 90's. Its a good thing we have re-elected Stephen again, because he is Conservative and they are the best at managing our finances, right?!!

We just spent an election where Harper and Dion were hell bent on beating each other to cut more taxes and layton was going to spend it all. In each case the Liberals and Conservatives said they would not run a deficit, but would go ahead with the tax cuts worth about 50 billion dolllars.

Layton said he would not run a deficit either. So all three said we won't go into the red. If the Conservatives go ahead with the promised tax cuts to business, where will the new income come from? Will it generate more revenue because of the good old trickle down trick? And if it doesn't trickle down what will Harper cut from spending to avoid a deficit?

The same question goes to Dion and or whoever the next Liberal leader is, what will you cut? I expect the Liberals might put on a slightly more progressive face on their cuts but it would not be pretty. Would the Liberals still go ahead with refunding the court challenges program? Would they still reinstate funding that was cut from HIV/AIDS funding, will they still implement fully the Kelowna accord?

And the NDP and Jack, would they still go ahead with a national pharmacare program, Childcare, and court challenges program and the Kelowna Accord if facing a deficit? What would they cut and would they cut some taxes for business or would they leave them where they are?

If you believe any of the leaders, they would do almost anything to avoid a deficit. That said, how the heck would they do it? We are facing a deficit, we are in the middle of an international financial crunch. Families are worried about being robbed of their pensions and savings.

We are in the potential hole at this time due to some decisions made by our current government. They have cut many sources of government revenue. The GST has been cut twice, eliminating 10 billion dollars annually. I can not estimate how much they have cut taxes in other areas readily as i write this.

The next few months will be critical because its important we avoid a deficit less we fall into the trap of doing so regularily. I can hardly wait to see the discussions and Parliament coming together as one to agree.

ok i admit, im feeling a lil silly right now...

Dion humiliated publicly

The end was near before the infamous three strike tape made it to air. I'm not saying the tape did not hurt, heck I'm a veteran of the NDP in BC and I know first hand what the media can do.

The 98 pound weakling described to Canadians by the Conservatives for a year leading was never addressed by the Liberals in the first place. Dion was humiliated publicly every time he voted for a Harper budget or confidence motion. Dion did not have enough time to change it.

The Liberals showed they were not ready for the fight when it was called, they looked second class with the use of an old plane, that would not be ready for days into the election, which left Dion travelling on greyhound.

The decision to visit only friendly ridings in the first few days also spelled trouble. It was seen as stemming the lose of seats, rather than trying to win them. While Harper was in Quebec and Layton was in Calgary taking the fight to Harper's doorstep, the Liberals were pleading with their own to stay with them.

The Green Shift proved to be an anchor. It kept pulling Dion down. It was too easily ridiculed as a costly tax and too hard to justify. It does not matter that it may have been the best idea, you can't sell it too people if you can't explain it in a few sentences.

Dion spent too much time fighting the NDP. He had to take Layton on because the NDP were making inroads on his support. I am sure the Liberal internal tracking polls told them this. He fell back on telling the NDP supporters they need to support the Liberals to stop Harper. Layton and the NDP just had to point to the 43 votes that the Liberals voted to keep Harper in Government. This election most of the NDP support stayed home though my guess is the Liberals did get some of them.

Where to go from here. Dion has a few serious issues to deal with, I hope he has a small army of folks watching his back. His number one problem is the less than enthusiastic endorsements received last night and this morning from Bob Rae and Iggy. Add to that the election of Justin Trudeau and his leadership favourite, Gerard Kennedy and Dion has a pretty complicated chess board to play with.

The Liberals will need to decide in the next few weeks on keeping Dion or going to a leadership contest in the coming months. My suggestion is that they do it quick or not at all. But do it. Now that would be the kind of leadership Dion didn't show during the election.

Me, I will watch, tear them apart when I can and then work too see Jack Layton and the NDP move a little more to the centre, creeping onto that Liberal grass, and maybe start mowing it ourselves.

Blame Layton

"I can't win without the NDP...," Liberal message

The Liberals can not win this election. We are going to have a Conservative minority. As the latest polls put the Conservatives anywhere form 6 to 10 points ahead and the NDP anywhere from 8 to 4 points behind the Liberals its any body's guess what the seat count will be for those two parties.

There is no obligation or higher goal that should see NDP supporters and candidates to toss out their vote to a Liberal. Its always a one way street with the Liberals. You have to vote for us, they chant. Even in Saskatchewan, in BC and parts of Ontario where the Liberals don't stand a ghost of a chance.

I think it is ludicrous and disingenuous of the Liberal crowd to go after Jack for not saying, vote Liberal. 1 in 4 Canadians according to most polls plan to vote liberal. 1 in 5 (or higher) say they will vote NDP. To say those Canadians should fold their tent and go home is pretty self serving and not unlike every other Liberal campaign.

This time the desperate appeal from the Liberals to NDP voters is going unheard. Steve V over at Far and Wide, is blaming Jack Layton for the Harper lead in the polls. It seems to me that the Liberals responsibility is for their own position and the NDP for theirs and Harper can look after himself.

The NDP have steadily attacked the Harper government and its agenda for two years and in this campaign, while the Liberals played silly games like, not showing up for votes, or worse yet voting for the harper agenda, for legislation they say they are opposed too, just so they did not have to go to an election.

The Liberals are full of excuses, like they couldn't win an election, we had no money, we had no leader, we have lost our base of supporters. It goes on. The thing is, the Liberal party gambled that they could hold off a little and then people would flock too them, recovering in the polls or a Harperite would say something stupid.

It did not work. While the leader of the opposition and his party were busy propping up the harper government, Then NDP and Jack Layton refused to vote for legislation they did not believe in. Thats the difference and why many people saw Jack Layton as the Unofficial leader of the opposition.

The Liberals will have only themselves to blame if they lose and it looks like they will.

All that said I and many of my friends do have much in common with those that are Liberal supporters. We also look and think and many of us will vote for a Liberal, because in this case they are someone that shares our values, albeit in another party, and they might be able to beat the Conservative.

a good reason to vote NDP is posted at Dr. Dawg

Will your Liberal still be Liberal October 15?

It's so easy to cross the floor...

We all know about the horse trading that went on in Parliament over the last three years. Belinda Stronagh moving from the Tories to the Liberals, right into a cushy cabinet post, David Emerson from the Liberals to the Conservatives. Scott Brison from Tory to Liberal, then there is the failed attempts by the Liberals and the Conservatives to get Chuck Cadman.

There have been several more that have crossed the floor in the last couple of years. Oddly enough it has been just two parties that partake in this, the Conservatives and the Liberals. The Green Party accepted Mr. Harris from BC as a member when he left the Liberals in the last parliament.

Only one party has a position against this kind of betrayal of local voters. The NDP introduced a bill in this last session to prevent crossing the floor. The Liberals and Conservatives voted against this legislation.

So as we go to vote on Tuesday, keep in mind that some of the Liberal and or Conservative candidates you are voting for could easily cross the floor to accept a cabinet post.

Listen to the Liberal response and the New Democrat response to a question crossing the floor...




Its clear we are headed to a minority government and likely Mr. Harper leading it. In the battle to hold onto power, to get a few extra votes, Mr. Harper may entice another Liberal to join his ranks. Who will it be? There are many Liberals that hold similar positions to the Conservatives on social justice issues like the right to choose, gay marriage, arts and culture and criminal justice.

These Liberals have voted with Stephen Harper more than Stephane Dion! In the last parliament the Liberal en mass voted on 43 pieces of legislation Mr. Harper wanted passed. Some Liberals voted even more than that with the Conservatives. They kept Mr. Harper in power by supporting the Conservative budgets and key pieces of Harper's draconian justice and immigration bills.

This election has been a breakthrough for the NDP. They are up in polling numbers from 2006, the media generally feel Layton has run the best campaign, and finally, the NDP numbers are not falling off as we come into election day. The Liberals have had Bob Rae toss everything he can at NDP supporters and hasn't managed to get them to budge.

Its going to be a barn burner election night.

We are big boys, get over it

I choose not to play the video of Dion and the do over video. I did so because I felt for him at that time. I recall the media going afterBob Skelly in the BC election many years ago, refusing to let him have a do over. It killed the NDP then.

I have little sympathy for all the bloggers going crazy about this. The holier than though Liberal bloggers that have jumped on this and screamed bias in the media, the mean Mike Duffy, the nasty conservatives etc.

We are big boys in this work. If New Democrats screamed every time they were portrayed in a poor light they would be doing nothing but whining about the media. I can cite article after article, issue after issue where the media have been less than fair in their coverage of NDP or Green candidates.

Some Liberal bloggers have been much nastier than the do over video is, making a practise of being absurdly scandal driven. I have also seen some New Democrat bloggers get a little high over this video and they have expressed their reasons. Its a news story and fair comment to do so in this blogger world. I can see what would happen if it were Jack Layton asking for a do over.

If Harper asked for a do over to adjust his sweater or to revise what he said, you and I know there are a ton of bloggers and politicians that would be leaping for joy congratulating the media for showing it.

All that said, I don't care for much of the main stream media's penchant to look for an exciting clip or statement and blow it up.

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Liberals and Cons fail us with Afghanistan

Its official, Canada is dumping more money into Afghanistan than it spends on Housing, transit, and Childcare combined.

Canada has spent at least $7.7 billion to $10.5 billion on costs related to its mission in Afghanistan in the past six years, and may spend $13.9 billion to $18.1 billion on the mission by the end of the 2010-11 budget year, according to The Fiscal Impact of the Canadian Mission in Afghanistan tabled by parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page on Thursday.

That is an enormous number. As i stated above, that is much more than we have spent on building affordable housing, expanding and repairing public transit and Childcare.

We may have spent much more than the amounts Parliaments Budget Officer says he can account for due to a lack of government consistency and transparency. The report goes onto say they likely understate the full costs of the mission.

These costs do not include the those of the the day to day military costs such as salaries

The figures released Thursday are incremental costs — that is, they do not include costs such as salaries that would be incurred anyway.

The report does go onto to criticize both the Liberal and Conservative governments for their lack of accountability and openness in reporting budget numbers. Page says, "To date, Parliament has been provided with only limited information, often after the fact, on these costs, and has not been given estimates on future costs that may be incurred in the support of the veterans of these conflicts."

Annual cost overruns for the mission up until 2006-07 ranged from 29 per cent in 2002-03 to a whopping 310 per cent ($321 million) in 2005-06, based on planned versus actual spending figures.

The Harper government campaigned on its promise to be more accountable and open in government spending. Who knew before this report of the cost overruns either under the Liberals or the Conservatives. Both these parties have hid the costs either deliberately or through ineptness.

In fact it has been impossible to get a cost for the war in Afghanistan prior to this report from the Parliament Budget Officer and even he says that the costs are much likely much more than those he has given us.

Two years ago Jack Layton called for NATO and the government of Afghanistan to begin talks with the Taliban as it was clear a war effort would not be winnable. Layton was laughed at, yet an unusal ally supporting a the same view was republican sentaor trent lott after his visit to the country.

Recently the commander of the British forces has said that its vital that talks begin as the fighting can not win. This is confirmation of Layton's position made clear two years ago. We are spending Billions on a war we can not win. We may as well be pour the money into the toilet.

Where could we spend these incremental dollars in the next few years. At best we will see another eight billion dollars poured into a losing war effort in the next 4 years.

Worst of all, most shameful of all, are the 98 Canadians, including one diplomat killed in this war. They will never come back, their families have lost more than any of us. This was a bad political decision to go into afghanistan and its been made much more so because we have decided to stay there.

You can read the whole report: Report of the Parliamentary Budget Officer: Fiscal impact of the Afghan mission

see also:

Afghanistan by the Numbers

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Dion sings for your vote

The unDion boys

Ladies and gentleman, may I present the Dion pleadings, a ritual Liberal election happening...

Its not unusual for us to be this close to election day and the Liberals move into high gear, ie, vote for us or the sky will fall. They make the plea to New Democrats and often as not in the past it has worked for the liberals. Yet after the election, all those progressive values that needed protection from the big bad Tories, well, they weren't real promises the liberals meant to keep this time, they hold that as a carrot for the next election. See how that works, I bet you do and so do many more people this time out.

The Liberals have said we need the progressives in this election to win. That's code for we need you to vote liberal so we can save our behinds. They go into Saskatoon where a liberal doesn't stand a chance of being elected school monitor let alone MP. Bob Rae says vote Liberal, the sky is falling and then runs out of town. What earthly good does it do for the liberals to send Bob Rae Saskatoon when we all know the NDP is the progressive choice. Because this vote progressive is really only a one way street for the liberals.

recommend this post okay?!

Dion scours land for Duct tape

Stephane Dion was seen in Canadian Tire yesterday to see how much duct tape he could get in a hurry. He was told to try wal-mart as Stephen Harper bought Canadian Tire out.

I mean all this over a little book leaked before its planned release date...
From McClelland.com

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Harper team in trouble

Desperation is setting into the Conservative party and its supporters after a week of falling polling numbers. The Prime Minister has finally woken up to the issue of the economy and it may be a little late. His plan to continue with 50 Billion dollar tax cut for corporations will remove much revenue for government and its ability to react to financial crisis like we are experiencing today.

The Liberals Dion has recently dropped his green shift as his primary talking point and spends a good deal more time talking about the economy, but to date he has not indicated how he will do that other than to call Premiers to Ottawa for a meeting. The meeting idea may have merit, but you would think they would have a plan to present.

The NDP have been talking about the economy for some time. Layton has insisted he would not institute the 50 Billion tax cut that Harper has on the books and Dion has said he will implement. Layton has as well said he would protect our pensions. No other leader in this campaign has said they will do this. With markets plunging our nest eggs are disappearing.

In the United States The Obama campaign is proposing to raise taxes for the very wealthy and corporations. Obama says he will not go forward with massive tax cuts for Corporations and the wealthy. As you read above, Harper and Dion both plan to go ahead with the Harper tax cuts for corporations.

Harper is talking about his ability to manage the economy, here are a few examples of his work...

Harper has followed the mantra of reducing government over-site of the economy. This flows from efforts to allow more self regulation in the banking industry and insurance. Further the Conservative government has moved to reduce government involvement in business in general.

Some examples of this, a refusal to address regulating the cell phone industry and their new charges, in particular with respect to text messages and the highest cost cell phones in the western world. The Conservatives have refused to address the banking industry and the highly profitable ATM and personal banking fees. To that list there is the outrageous rates charged on credit cards.

Likely one of the best examples of the cost to Canadians of deregulation is food industry. They have followed the Liberals (Liberals cut 1300 inspectors beginning in 1995) in reducing the number of inspectors and reporting. As has just come to light, earlier this year the Conservatives removed a regulation that required food processing plants to inform the government inspectors when they found bacteria. The government inspector would then over see the clean up. If this regulation were still in place there is a good chance the recent Listeria outbreak may have been avoided.

Add to these examples the recent cut to the GST which have removed 10 billion dollars a year for the federal government coffers. That loss of revenue has not been matched by increases in others. Now we can also include lost revenues due to the crash in commodity prices. This is putting pressure on the federal budget which has already slipped into a deficit for the first few months of the fiscal year.

The Harper government is still following the Bush/Reagan trickle down plan. That plan helped drive the US into a recession in the 80's and has contributed a great deal to the current economic crisis. Add to all this that Jim Flaherty was also the Ontario Provincial Finance minister during the Mike Harris Government that saw government deregulation, job losses and massive deficits.

This election Harper says he is the one to trust. Harper had no experience running a government prior to becoming prime minister. Dion and Layton have not led a government. So while Liberals and Conservatives can claim to have been in government, they can't claim to have experienced leaders. That puts them both on par with Layton. That says to me, look at the platforms. Who will be there for you and your family? Who will work to protect jobs, the environment and health care?

I don't think I need to spell it out beyond that, do I?

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TWO points and climbing...

TWO points and climbing...

Where is the campaign going? Who is shoring up support and who is visiting Liberal ridings? It seems the Liberals are into ridings these days that they hold. They are being deafened by the foot steps behind them. That is Jack Layton, now spending his time in Liberal and Conservative country as the Liberals Bobbing for Votes find themselves coming up empty handed in places like this... Perhaps Stephane will run into Jack on the trail...

OTTAWA — The confident New Democrats are riding the momentum of favourable poll results right into the heart of Liberal-held seats to close out the campaign’s second-to-last weekend.

NDP Leader Jack Layton’s campaign convoy will truck into Liberal country in Newfoundland and Labrador and Thunder Bay, Ont., while Liberal Leader Stephane Dion tries to hang on to the seats his party has....

...A Canadian Press Harris-Decima post-debate poll released Saturday suggests the NDP has closed the gap with the Liberals and now trail by just two points.... Ottawa Sun

Bobbing for votes

Bobbing for votes

Liberals you want to play this way! Bob Rae just called New Democrat voters stupid.

"In the last 10 days, we've really got to focus on what are the real choices. And I honestly believe the NDP is not a viable choice anymore," Rae said after rallying about 40 supporters.

That kind of stuff will ensure that Bob Rae's Liberals will not become government. The Liberals have done this almost every election since 1968. The best part is that Rae said it to a huge crowd of 40 supporters.

Bob Rae you should know better.

Torontonians rely on others to stop Harper

They are at it again. The Conservative hordes are at the gates. They are about to cross over into the 416 area code. Rumour has it they already possess some 416 phone numbers.

How many times have people in Toronto heard this nonsense? How many times have people in Toronto demonstrated their allegiance to the Natural Governing Party and been let down? The Liberal party hasn't won an election based on who the heck they are since Trudeau did it in 1968. Their fall back is always vote for us or the Conservative monster will strike us on the spot.

Today's NOW magazine has a great article on why you should consider tuning out the Liberal cries this election. You can do it safely as their isn't a hope on this not quite green earth that the Harper team will win in Toronto. The seats in Toronto are safely in non-Tory country.

The Liberals should have to earn your support this time out. If you like the green-shift and trust them to implement it, vote for them. Just be aware that Ontario and Quebec provincial governments do not support it and the Liberals dismal track record of delivering after they are elected. Do you recall the big photo-ops on the Toronto waterfront in 1997 and 2000. Its still looks the same too me, the Liberals must have forgot that promise.

If you are in the 905 belt then you may want to consider some strategic voting, get informed because the Liberals incumbents are not necessarily the 'progressive' candidates that are leading.

If the Tories are to be kept from office this time then we need to have a coalition government. That government will likely be a Liberal and NDP government with support from the Bloc and if a Green is elected, i suspect they too will pitch in.

It does not matter that the coalition has 90 Liberal and 65 NDP or Or 80 NDP and 75 Liberal. What matters is that the coalition get enough seats to form a government. In the end it clear to me that if you live in Toronto, you will have to rely on others outside our city to stop Harper. We have already done it for years, this year is no different.

Vote Orange, Green or Red with no fear. Won't it feel good to vote for your beliefs rather than with the proverbial gun to your head.

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liberals right, they couldn't win

Just a reminder as to why we're in this election now and why Stephen Harper has passed budgets and stayed in power for so long...



The Liberals worst fears are happening. Harper called Dion's bluff for more than two years, two budgets and tons of cuts to programs, gutting funding to health programs like HIV/AIDS, rendering the gun registry impotent and much more. Dion and the Liberals allowed bill after bill to pass because they did not think they would do well in an election.

Guess what, they were right.

Best before date past?

Best before date...

Problems are running deeper and deeper for the Liberal campaign as another Liberal makes public his lack of enthusiastic support for Dion. Its no big secret that the Liberals are having a bad time of it inside and that is reflected in the voter response outside. Tie that with the "the Liberals' erratic platform attempt to leave no voter unbought," - (Sun Columnist GREG WESTON) and you see just what kind of trouble they are in. They have no direction, a leader most Liberals don't want and a voting public that would prefer Layton to lead a coalition government over Dion.

Back to BC, where Gerry Lenoski, running under the bleeding liberal red brand in Burnaby-New Westminster, states he can't wait for Michael Ignatieff to become leader. Burnaby Now ran this story Saturday, September 27. Lenoski told the reporter, "Some day Mr. Dion may not be leader, and I hope Michael Ignatieff will replace him," Lenoski said in an interview. "Everybody has a best before date."

That does have to hurt. Lenoski realising the potential damage, a little late mind you, went on to say, "...Lenoski said he hopes Ignatieff leads the party "after a Dion government has been in power long enough to right the wrongs of the Tories." Good try Gerry!

The accidental aspect to all this is this screen shot from Lenoski's campaign site, welcoming Ignatieff to his campaign office. Lenoski was as many will know and acknowledged on his website, the chairman of Ignatieff's BC Campaign for leader.

To add a little more colour here Lenoski was in the running for the nomination in 2007 and then bowed out in April of that year according to an email he sent out, which Public Eye Online made public. Here is a piece of the email...

"...My professional demands now are such that I must leave today for Hong Kong on a business trip to China for 10 days. I came to this decision since my necessary absence could coincide with the Burnaby-New Westminster nomination meeting being scheduled, and its possibly even being held before I return home just ahead of the LPC(BC) Convention at Sun Peaks. Not least of all, I am withdrawing at this time because the prospect of a candidacy and an election campaign also conflicts with my current personal responsibilities more than had been apparent previously, and especially insofar as my consulting firm and our clients are concerned. ..."

Now it simply indicates that in 2007 he could not run here. He does go onto support the candidacy of former NDP activist, turned Liberal STEVE McCLURG.

I'm not aware of what happened next. I do recall Daniel Lee running for the nomination, Lee was backing Dion in the federal leadership contest. Did Steve decide later to back out and make room for Gerry to run, I expect he did. Steve would do that kind of thing, he's a nice guy (don't shoot at me Dippers). Still, all this is for not, in one way or another, the riding will still be New Democrat after Election Day.

Thanks to Dipper Chick for lead

Dion's scare machine can't afford the gas

Liberal Party of Canada, looks like they have become the Liberal Party of some parts of Toronto. I'm not kidding, look at the latest poll in today's Toronto Star. The Harper led Conservatives are in majority country at 40%. The NDP and Liberals have 21% each. In Ontario the Liberals have 27% to the NDP's 25. That's dang close to a statistical tie.

The Liberal vote is being sucked away by Conservatives and the NDP. Worse for the Liberals is Dion's ratings continue to fall while Layton is rising, being seen as exciting and interesting. 60% of Canadians are still opposed to Harper and his negatives are very high.

The anybody but Harper chant means vote NDP this time. The rules are going out the window. The usual wisdom has suggested you vote for the incumbent, usually a Liberal, to keep the Conservatives out. Not this time. Those incumbent Liberals are in shock, not knowing what to do. Their fall back scare machine can't afford the gas, Layton on the other hand is filling his tank up with an alternative energy, its called excitement.

Want to see a good example of the difference between the NDP campaign and the Liberals?

excitement vs blah

update: NDP surge in cities as Liberals languish: Poll

Gerard Kennedy's hopes for redemption is going...

Somebody kick me...

Is it really happening? The Liberals are falling below water, the Conservatives are staying in minority country and the Bloc, NDP and Green Parties are rising.

I can feel John Turner silently jumping for joy, he will soon be able to show his head in Liberal circles without having to be reminded he lead the Liberals to their worst result in 40 years. Mr. Dion is asking for that honour now.

Those of you thinking about voting strategically have a lot more work ahead of you now. The standard kind of guide in the past has been to support the incumbent candidate in a riding if he or she was a 'progressive' type. In our elections that has meant voting either for the Liberal or the NDP.

This election is way way different. Those incumbent Liberals are falling faster than Gerard Kennedy's hopes for redemption. Poor King-maker Kennedy will find he is as welcome at a Liberal gathering as Tom Wappel is on Church Street. (Tom Wappel is one of 30 some Liberal MP's that have voted against gay rights consistently).

The way its shaking down is simple. Hedy Fry in Vancouver is going down, Kennedy is in a real fight to get into Parliament, Maria Minna in Beaches East York is in real trouble, Ujjal Dosanjh who I like alot, is facing big time heat in Vancouver, and Saskatchewan is about to send Ralph Goodalle packing. You lose those folks you are going to lose more. With the exception of Ujjal, the Liberals will lose to the NDP.

At this point it looks like the Liberals only hope of pulling out a strong second place finish would be a clear-cut undisputible win in the english and french debates. Barring that, someone with a camera finding Stephen Harper in a airport restroom might do the trick.

In all seriousness, this campaign is almost done for the Liberals. The NDP and Conservatives can smell it. The debate is all they have left.

Buckdog ponders over the numbers and why

Once Hedy Liberals are Fried

Currently a whole bunch of folks are thinking of voting something other than Conservative. thats the good news. In fact 60% or more of the population will vote for a candidate other than a Conservative.

That maybe okay in the end if the Greens, NDP and Liberals can find enough common ground and have enough seats to wrest power away from the Harperites. Elizabeth May said as much today, she is asking Canadians to vote for the candidate that has the best chance of defeating the local Conservative. Mr. Dion has agreed in to talk about it. Mr. Layton has dismissed it according to the press.

So it would appear that this is a non starter at this point and maybe it should be. The Greens have never held such opportunity to elect someone, though it would still be a surprise if they did, and the NDP have never been this close to unseating the Liberals.

Today's poll by CPAC-Nano's (thanks for the twitter, Bourque) show the Green's and the NDP gaining ground at the expense of the Liberals, and unless something changes in the days ahead, it won't be hard for more Liberals to abandon ship. A small shift of voters would see the Liberals fall behind the NDP. Not since Brian Mulroney, have the Liberals been in such desperate straits.

The Conservatives have all but abandoned the Prairies where they will sweep the seats again and are focusing on BC, Ontario and Quebec. The Liberals are barely hanging onto Toronto. Even here they are about to lose star candidate, Gerard Kennedy. Kennedy is in tough against NDP MP, Peggy Nash and will likely lose.

A couple of days ago, I got a phone call from a friend in Montreal. He has always voted for the Bloc. With the Bloc appearing to have no focus, he has switched to the NDP and is campaigning for them. He states that he has many friends joining him this time. That hearsay evidence is backed up by the latest polls. The NPD are tied with the Liberals in Quebec.

In BC the Liberals trail the NDP by 6 points and trend appears to be widening. Look out because Hedy Fry, who has owned Vancouver Centre for the Liberals since 1993 when she knocked off Prime Minister Kim Campbell is in a horse race and she's going to lose it. The Conservatives are running a smart two time MLA, Lorne Mayencourt. Mayencourt and I have our differences as you will discover if you search my blog. That said, he remains a formidable candidate and a tireless doorknocker and self promoter. Mayencourt will pull votes from Fry, opening the door for the NDP's star candidate, Michael Byers, nationaly recognised for his work as a Canadian Research Chair in International Law and Politics UBC.

If Hedy can lose her seat, the Liberals are fried in BC. They could lose every single seat they currently hold.

For the so called Centre left parties to get on with each other it is going to take Stephane Dion to do the unthinkable. He will have to cede his Liberal given 'right' to dictate the terms. Dion could propose an equal number of seats for the NDP and Liberals and a token Green seat. It's not going to happen.

The NDP will likely reject him as have the voters to date.

In Toronto vote for whoever you like, the Tories will still lose. In BC, Ontario, Atlantic Canada, vote NDP. On the Prairies, vote NDP or Liberal, one of them might sneak in. In Quebec, I never thought it possible, but consider the NDP candidate especially in Montreal and Western Quebec, in a four way race, they could win.

My advice stands until I see some momentum on the Liberal poll numbers. The only party with a chance at a majority are the Conservatives. It looks like the progressive side of politics needs a minority to govern. That won't be easy if the Liberals maintain that people that voted NDP in 2006 caused their defeat. Its time the Liberals shouldered some of the blame for their misfortunes.