It will be Nash or Mulcair

Judging by the hospitality suites last night Peggy Nash drew the most attention. That is not a big surprise, it is however an indication of her support growing. She has a great deal of second and third ballot support. Peggy also has a huge phone bank in Toronto and in Vancouver that kicked in high gear yesterday, calling voters that have been identified as second or third ballot voters. Peggy looks to me to have the best organization on the ground at this moment and very inspired supporters.

This convention is unlike any other yet many of the same rules apply. We will see leaders drop out of the race and support other candidates. The difference is that they have less access to the voters. In the old days you could swing a deal and get your message out quickly and efficently. It was contained inside the walls of the convention hall. Voters can expect many calls, emails and face book and twitter messages as the various camps attempt to reach everyone.

As I said above though, the game changer moments will still happen, people at home watching on TV or the internet will experiance much of floor movement. I expect we will see Topp and Dewar dropping out after third ballot if it goes that far.

If Mulcair is close to 40% on the first ballot, we are going to have a very lively time of it early on. This will force Topp and Dewar to act. They will see that only Nash can stand a chance at that point. If Mulcair has less than 30% on that first ballot we are in for a long day.


Jymn said...

Funny how different it is on TV than being there. Topp and Cullen stole the TV show. Muclair pulled a Nixon TV moment. Nash embarrassed herself with her Oscar speech moment.

It's interesting how different the perception is from the floor compared to TV only. Contrary to the CBC pundits, I thought the speeches went rather well. I think it is an impressive lot although I do wish Olivia Chow was in contention.

Jeff Jedras said...

Peggy also represents the riding next door. Not saying she may not have the mo (although that wasn't my read), just that the proximity of her riding would likely mean more people at her suite, just like she had more volunteers for her floor demonstration. Anyway, should be an interesting day!

Ricky Barnes said...

That she does. Still its an impressive show. We will settle it all today after 3 ballots or 5.