NDP still on Top in Quebec

I attended the annual get together of progressive bloggers recently in Toronto.  It was enjoyable but could have been even more so had I been able to trot out the latest poll out of Quebec.  The novelty of having the NDP ahead of the Conservatives and Liberals has yet to get boring for me and no doubt has our Liberal friends pulling their blanket even higher over their heads.

Here is what the recent poll said from The Province newspaper,

The wave of popular support that propelled the New Democratic Party into the position of official opposition in the May federal election remains strong in Quebec.
Asked which party they would vote for if a federal election was held today, the NDP came out far ahead with 43 per cent of the vote. The Bloc Quebecois followed at 21 per cent, with the Conservatives garnering 18 per cent, the Liberals 11 and the Green Party six. The NDP, who went from 37 seats to 103 after the last election, thanks largely to the 59 seats it won in Quebec, was popular in all regions of Quebec, according to the Leger Marketing survey taken for the Montreal Gazette and Le Devoir.

And I was very pleased to hear Tom Mulcair state he was opposed to a merger with the Liberal party.  Brian Topp also stated we don't need a merger though he couched it with the idea a coalition could be possible.  As we gear up for more Conservative legislation this fall, much of it being mean-spirited and socially devastating, Topp's musings awhile back that we work out a co-operation agreement with progressive folks for the next election is worth thinking about.

Its way too early to get to those discussions however.  The NDP can expect better numbers polling numbers across Canada as the leadership contest gathers more public interest and if the Harper Government does in fact cut four billion from the budget this year and in each following year.

For now I want to bask in the glow as support for the NDP shows no sign of falling. Add to that the NDP's position that Quebec receive more seats along with Ontario, Alberta and BC appears to be something Harper is considering as well.


ck said...

I wouldn't bet on Harper adding any seats for Quebec when he adds more to Ontario, Alberta and BC. Simply put, his western and newly created Ontario red meat base simply won't stand for it! Remember, we're sub-human to them. We're also a threat to their neo-con utopia.

Another thing, I did the math if those seats are added. Turns out Quebec will be under represented. Con cheerleaders over at the blogging tories, including Quebecers like Dr. Jabba the Roy are cheering this--an under represented Quebec. Then the question becomes how hard will the NDP opposition fight this? What can they do? How restricted are they under Harper's "my way or the highway" majority?

It looks like this seat redistribution--or should I say--gerrymandering--will be designed more to ensure more con seats than anything else, certainly more than serving democracy. We Quebecers know this. It also looks like this will be done before the permanent leader will be selected, thus, under Nycole Turmel's watch. I'm afraid, from what I've seen of her, I'm not impressed. She just isn't that strong enough of a leader to really get into Harper's face and raise his blood pressure.

As for Quebec's polling numbers. It's still early. I still don't count out the Bloc. Harper's acts against la Belle province keep racking up; the hiring of Angie Perischilli, the delaid reaction in the flooding in the Richelieu Valley, dragging their heels in the HST compensation, the shoving monarchist symbols down our throats, dumb on crime omnibus bill (something of particular sensitivity for us Quebecers), That silly flag bill, etc. etc. and they barely started their first session of their majority mandate. I shudder to think about what's next. And there will be more chills, spills and thrills for la belle province in store from His highness.

I would go further in saying that if Daniel Paille gets the leadership of the BQ, and I really hope he does, as that is probably one Bloquiste Harper hates most after Gilles Duceppe, things could really get interesting.

It's tricky. It's too bad the party doesn't have anyone resembling Jack layton. None of this crop comes even close.

Like I said, Harper needs to go the next election. We can't afford this majority mandate. Honestly, I don't care who does it, and how. But I do know, it will take cooperation of some kind. As they say, necessity is the mother of invention.

Rick Barnes said...

I am well aware its early days. It is encouraging that we hold our place so far ahead after jack's passing.

Harper said the other day in Peterborough that is looking at adding seats in Quebec as well. They have not written QC off and will sink even further if they don't add the seats.

You can see the NDP and BLOC ads in QC coming on that one if he doesn't.

I suspect Harper will have some goodies coming Quebec's way in year 3 and 4. All governments do that.

As you point out, he has done much to piss people off so far. As to co-operation, there seems to be a building concensus within the NDP to work out a co-operation deal with Libs and maybe Greens.

Any deal will take at least the Liberals to agree. The Liberals have generally said no in the past. perhaps they will have another look at it this time out, given they will likely be in major rebuild mode.