Gerard Kennedy's hopes for redemption is going...

Somebody kick me...

Is it really happening? The Liberals are falling below water, the Conservatives are staying in minority country and the Bloc, NDP and Green Parties are rising.

I can feel John Turner silently jumping for joy, he will soon be able to show his head in Liberal circles without having to be reminded he lead the Liberals to their worst result in 40 years. Mr. Dion is asking for that honour now.

Those of you thinking about voting strategically have a lot more work ahead of you now. The standard kind of guide in the past has been to support the incumbent candidate in a riding if he or she was a 'progressive' type. In our elections that has meant voting either for the Liberal or the NDP.

This election is way way different. Those incumbent Liberals are falling faster than Gerard Kennedy's hopes for redemption. Poor King-maker Kennedy will find he is as welcome at a Liberal gathering as Tom Wappel is on Church Street. (Tom Wappel is one of 30 some Liberal MP's that have voted against gay rights consistently).

The way its shaking down is simple. Hedy Fry in Vancouver is going down, Kennedy is in a real fight to get into Parliament, Maria Minna in Beaches East York is in real trouble, Ujjal Dosanjh who I like alot, is facing big time heat in Vancouver, and Saskatchewan is about to send Ralph Goodalle packing. You lose those folks you are going to lose more. With the exception of Ujjal, the Liberals will lose to the NDP.

At this point it looks like the Liberals only hope of pulling out a strong second place finish would be a clear-cut undisputible win in the english and french debates. Barring that, someone with a camera finding Stephen Harper in a airport restroom might do the trick.

In all seriousness, this campaign is almost done for the Liberals. The NDP and Conservatives can smell it. The debate is all they have left.

Buckdog ponders over the numbers and why

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