Budget 2011 Canada - Who will win the day?

Tomorrow is budget day in Canada. Jim Flaherty the Finance Minister will introduce the budget in hopes it will cause the Government to go down instead of the expected confidence motion to come after his government is found in Contempt of Parliament.

The Liberals and Bloc have indicated they will vote against the budget.  For the Liberals it would be the first time they have done this since Harper was elected.  The Bloc will of course hold their fire as they await news that a deal has been reached with the Quebec Government to compensate them for the conversion costs associated with the HST.  Quebec did not get the same money as Ontario or BC when they combined the provincial sales tax with the GST.

That leaves the NDP.  Jack Layton, leader of the NDP has put a few things on the table.  If the government meets the goals set by the NDP they would vote for the budget.  Some of the items put forward by the NDP include, removal of the GST on home heating fuel, Increases to Seniors income (GIS) and changes to the Canada Pension plan for seniors, and the continuation and funding of the ecoHome renovation program.

Barring a self detonating bomb in the budget and Harper meets Layton's requests, we may see the NDP support Harper on the budget.  There is of course lots of room for Layton to dismiss any efforts by the Harper Govt on these issues as being too little and or the big deal breaker of inclusion of significant corporate tax cuts.  We won't know for a couple of days what will happen.

In the interim Harper and company along with the Liberals will blast the NDP until they vote one way or the other.  Harper by saying he gave them much of what they asked for and Ignatieff  because of all the heat he has taken from the NDP for supporting Harper. 

Its a mine field in the House of Commons right now.  One that will easily blow up on which ever party fails to step carefully.

update: The NDP list presented to Prime Minister Harper.

Jack Layton and the New Democrats have put forward a set of practical, affordable proposals – all focused on taking pressure off your family budget:

• Take the federal sales tax off skyrocketing home heating bills and restore the EcoEnergy Retrofit program.
• Increase the Guaranteed Income Supplement for our most vulnerable seniors.
• Strengthen the Canada Pension Plan we all rely on.
• Hire more doctors and nurses across Canada.

The Audacity of Iggy and the Liberal Party of Canada

Over to you Mr. Spector...

"Still, if a Toronto Star report is accurate, you have to marvel at Mr. Ignatieff’s audacity in claiming that “the NDP will stand for ‘no darn principles’ if leader Jack Layton and the New Democrats fail to support the long-gun registry in a crucial vote this fall in Parliament.” Actually, the word “audacity” doesn’t quite capture it: Frankly, in light of the history of these two political parties, it’s ludicrous for any Liberal to claim advantage over the NDP when it comes to questions of principle. Whether you agree with those principles or not." Globe and Mail

Whatever happened to the national Childcare plan my dear Liberal friends?

My rant

Its crazy here in Canada. We have an ever growing Christian lobbying effort in Ottawa. People that won't stop until Canada no longer allows abortions, says to queers of all kinds, get back in the closet and be lucky we don't do what the Muslims do in Iran.
Stephen Harper thinks he is fooling us all. In fact the mainstream media are fooling us. They act like Mr. Harper won an election. Hell, 66% of Canadians voted for someone other than Mr. Harper's party. Of course the Liberals have conceded to almost everything Harper has put forward. No wonder folks have the idea that Harper is an absolute ruler. The Libs are propping him up.  If Mr. Harper wins a Majority, it because of a completely inept Liberal party.

Iggy couldn't come up with a policy if Canada depended on it.  I guess that was a given.  The Liberals missed the boat going with this academic.  He waits for the results to come in months after a decision is needed.  Witness his late conversion on the road to Damascus, "the Harper Government has to go at all costs"  all the while, hoping the Harper government would not fall.  He was about a year late in that conversion.  Now he is at it again.  Supporting Conservative budgets. 

The only hope for people opposed to Harper is to vote NDP.  Not a bad choice given they have wrung concessions out of Harper and before him, Martin.  In fact they are the only ones in Parliament committed to making the place work.  Harper has a narrow agenda to get through, Iggy is protecting his own publicly paid housing across the street from Harper. 

The media need to start asking the tough questions of Harper, Ignatieff and Layton.  Make them answer and when they side step it go after them.  I know that Layton will be okay.  He at least has policies to refer people too. 

Imagine that, maybe we could focus on what each party would do if they were elected. 

LPC have a Rae of hope

It looks as if Jack Layton made the right decision when he decided to keep the Harper government in power for now. It is clear the Tories are on a high and today's ekos poll shows the LPCers losing ground in Toronto. To put that in perspective, imagine the Liberals being in the game in Calgary. Thats how big this is. The LPC Iggy lead party is performing as bad and maybe worse than the Dion lead team. At least with Dion, you knew what the LPC stood for.

As is usual, the New Democrat numbers go up a little when the LPC goes down. No different in today's polling info. The New Democrats need to do a lot more advertising, spend it now and show the country they do have some alternative views on the issues of the day. The LPC is sliding and the New Democrats can make some head way.

And the LPC needs to sit down and decide what it is that defines them. Can anyone point to an issue they lead on, that they have made their own?

Can Bob Rae have been worse than this? Rae's NDP government was likely the deciding factor in the LPC decision to choose Iggy to save Ontario. It looks like losing Ontario has happened anyway. The slide in Toronto is even worse. Would Bob have let this happen?

New NDP ad hits the mark

Ok, this is on the right track. Lets see more of these ads on a variety of issues.




See others can do better!

New Democrats and LPCers need to look deep

Update - 5:30 pm Sep 30/09: Olivia Chow has not said she would be thinking she would run for the Mayor's job in Toronto. In fact she will be staying in Parliament! I stand corrected and very happy!
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Politics creates some odd realities. The Liberals fed up with taking the brunt for supporting the Harper minority decided it was time someone else picked up that dirty job and the New Democrats have obliged. Jeff over at his "I'm an Ontarian after being a BCer" blog has a good analysis of the situation, albeit from an LPCer point of view. He takes few little shots at the New Democrats.

The truth of the stranger than reality show in Ottawa is that the New Democrats and Liberals do not want an election now. The New Democrats are taking the hit in the media and from Iggy for "propping up" the Harperites. Funny thing is, its truly to Iggy's short term benefit that we don't have an election, especially with Bob Rae breathing down his back. An election now would likely see the NDP lose some seats and the LPC gain a few and Harper gaining some, maybe enough for a majority.

With a another dismal LPC performance, Iggy will have to leave and Bob Rae will step in, bringing with him all of Jean's buddies. The demon of Paul Martin will be washed away and the LPC will actually stand some chance of regaining government.

The New Democrats future looks about the same or worse. I wish I could suggest it would be otherwise. Instead of being acknowledged by the media for preventing an election and trying to make Parliament work at least until spring, they are being characterised as having to hold their noses while voting with Harper.

I haven't met any Canadian other than a few party hacks that want an election or think we need one. With that public thought pervading the land, the New Democrats should get some credit for doing the dirty work. But this is politics and the New Democrats are being roasted as hypocrites (79 Liberal votes).

Further disconcerting is the lack of imagination in any of the political parties. We Can Do Better and Standing up for Average Working Families are lame and bereft of content. Where is the grand vision. All we get is, "they are wrong and we are right."

The New Democrats must do better this time out or Jack is finished. With rumours that Olivia Chow may leave one of only two New Democrat seats in Toronto to seek the Mayor's job, the New Democrats fortunes look bleak for making any advances in Canada's biggest city. If Chow runs for Mayor then I expect the left and centre vote will split and John Tory will become Mayor, thats a lovely thought to contemplate.

The LPC and the New Democrats have a big job to do this winter. Polling does not build grand visions, polls do not inspire people to support this idea or that one. They both need to be out there listening and talking with Canadians.

I have seen many of the ideas the New Democrats have proposed and I support them whole heartedly. What they have failed to do is capture the attention of voters and would be voters. Instead of being seen as a party that supports working families, they are seen as the party that hates business. The LPC on the other hand is seen as having destroyed its foundation.

If we want to stop a Conservative majority we New Democrats and LPCers must take a good look at what our respective parties are offering Canadians and will Canadians like it enough to support it.

Trouble in Quebec

Liberal MP Denis Coderre has resigned as the LPCer in charge for Quebec and as the Defense critic. Coderre did say he still has confidence in Iggy even if he Coderre has taken all the heat for the party in Quebec. Sounds like all is not as nice as the public statements make it seem too be.

Its always hard learning on the job especially when you are busy trying to look like you want an election despite being way way down in the polls. Lucky for the LPCers the NDP managed to get some EI money, no matter how short lived it may end up being, at least it saved Iggy from being the second Liberal leader from going down in flames in an election.

An election now could do nothing other than give Harper his majority without Quebec, now that would make for an interesting four years. That is especially true given Harper's announcement today that 90% of stimulus funding has found a home, even if most of it is in Conservative ridings. Wonder where the Conservatives learned that way of doing business.

Put your Right foot in

Yes I know there has been lots of posts about Iggy doing the two step. You know, step over here, say this, step over there, say the opposite.

Its tough being the AIR Apparent. You have to say so many things to get elected. Its does however appear that the Liberal leader will keep the commitment made by the Tories in Ottawa and The LIBcons in Queens Park to harmonize the sales taxes. Its really not fair for Iggy to call it Harper's Sales tax in BC anymore. That is what he has been doing as the TAX is not going over well out there.

Here in Ontario, it different, people here have rolled over. So Iggy went to meet some business folks the other day and decided there are more votes here than in BC so he won't change the HST. That is going to cost him in BC.

As for Ontario, the longer we wait for an election the worse it looks for the Liberals. To add insult to more red faced LPCers, they may have handed the NDP a big repeat victory in Quebec with the Pontifical one himself, (that's Iggy) declaring he will anoint a woman to run in Outremont. I can hardly wait.

Till then try out this tune (note its always a "right foot")

You put your right foot in,
You put your right foot out,
You put your right foot in
And you shake it all about.
You do the Iggy shuffle
And you turn yourself around,
That's what it's all about.

- Kelly McParland: Liberals do the Iggy Shuffle on sales tax

Thomas Mulcair is Outremont

Thomas Mulcair's butt is not waiting to be kicked by Iggy's chosen woman. I hope for the LPCer's sake they pick a ripe one. Mulcair is very good and will not be an easy one to knock off. I expect they (LPCers) will find it surprisingly difficult.

Adding to the difficulty will be the idea that the Liberals have again decided against a democratic selection of a candidate, continuing the age old practice of benevolent leadership.

The Member of Parliament for Outremont, as awful as that sounds today to the LPCer, is a New Democrat and likely will be no matter who Iggy hand picks for the riding, especially if Iggy hand picks someone. Mulcair is a new breed of New Democrat and not so easily dismissed.

update: I missed Scott's advice to Iggy here.

This is how you get things right Iggy

Oh oh, looks like the LPCers are down again. Not only is the latest poll showing them to be headed south, but the NDP have done in a few days what Iggy and the LPCers couldn't get done all summer.

See in the spring, Iggy said in order for him to support the Conservative government something had to be done on EI. Iggy created a committee of three of his guys and three of the Conservative dudes. The committee had no teeth. It met a few times with predictible results. Why didn't Iggy make changes EI a condition of his support. The budget could have been amended if the Harper folks wanted to avoid an election. You likely would even have had the NDP support it.

Don't look now, but look who found money for at least 190,000 Canadians! It wasn't Iggy's committee, nope, it was the NDP and Jack Layton, using their leverage when they get it.

h/t Blogging a dead horse

Smoking Harper's butts

It seems Jack can't do anything right by red LPCers standards. First they castigate Jack for reminding them the LPC voted for Harper's first budget, and then they voted again for Harper and again. Soon it was ten times and then twenty and then fifty and then seventy-nine. My god how did it get so far out of hand.

Its kinda like the first pull on a cigarette. You cough, you sputter but it also makes your head dizzy. You try it again, a little less coughing, soon you begin to like it, even though you know its bad for you. You keep puffing away, have them more often.

Then the effects of the smoking start to take effect. You are coughing more, and all that second hand smoke is hurting those you seek to support you. People around you glare, you begin to smell...

You get the picture. So have the Liberals really quit? I expect they have this time. So instead of going on, they attack the NDP for not jumping up and down cause the LPCers quit. Jack Layton I suspect is happy the Liberals decided to give up smoking Harper's butts.

Layton however wasn't content that the LPC managed to wean themselves, he wanted to see if he could get the Cons to quit selling those butts and do something a little more healthy for Canadians.

No luck there it seems as Harper is addicted to selling butts.

So it looks like an election this fall. Now it would be cool, if just a couple of those LPC bloggers would say something nice about Jack and how he managed to embarrass the LPCers enough that they had to quit smoking Harper's butts!

Now I want to spend some time going after Harper's Butts and all that gross smoke coming from the PMO.

How do I get off this horse?

EI reform isn't coming anytime soon to workers exhausting their benefits. As unemployment continues to rise, banks make huge profits and the prospect of an election dimming, we can expect little help.

Ignatieff managed to avoid a spring election by having Harper agree to a panel of LPCers and Conservatives, discuss over the summer, possible changes to EI. They met over the summer and so far agreed to disagree. That's not a surprise really. Harper has been stating for months that such action when demanded by the NDP was not needed. Now Iggy is back peddling. How do I get off this horse?

Where are the roots to today's EI problems? Go back to 1994 and Paul Martin, then finance Minister in the Liberal government. He cut back the entitlements, building of Brian Mulroney's cut backs to make it even harder to qualify for EI. They expanded the number of regions and extended hours needed to qualify, cut weeks of benefit and unless your boss went belly up, you couldn't hope to get EI.

Today we see record numbers of people on EI. Those people will see their benefits run out in a few months. What then, there are few new jobs, heck more people than ever are losing jobs.

Back to Paul Martin. As finance minister he stole funds from EI to balance the governments budget. So while collecting ever larger amounts of premiums from employers and employees, they used the excess. They cut EI benefits to allow even more of the EI premiums money to go to balancing the general budget.

Now we have Harper who wants EI to cover the self employed. Not a bad idea, but one that is fraught with difficulties. It looks like his plan would see current workers subsidize the plan. It looks like workers in Canada are caught between a rock and a hard place, between Conservative and LPC boulders.

Why is it so hard to get either of these leaders to stand up for workers in this country? Why do they continue to block EI changes that would allow people more time to find work, to pay their mortgage and bills and get by. Just a couple of days ago the big banks announced that 16000 Canadian households are three or more months behind in payments. That's a record. Its still a small number but an ugly looking trend.

The prospect of a fall election looks dimmer. Harper managed to hide his nine appointed senators behind Gary Doer, Canada's new chief lobbyist in Washington. He is managing to look moderate in the media and the public.

Well then, imagine Stephen Harper with a majority. It won't be a pretty sight. The LPCers will have only themselves to blame. They will blame the NDP for failing to fall into line and support the so called centre left. There is nothing left about the LPC save CB in Toronto and soon there will be nothing.

How do I get off this horse? That's the question Iggy should have looked after before he forced Dion out. The LPC choose this horse and now I must admit, I am mildly amused watching them vote against still another non-confidence motion. Seems they prefer the opposition benches as they are, no need to spend money they don't have to run in an election that Harper just might win again.

Better talk to Jack and the NDP. He was supportive of working together a while ago. But remember, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Jack may want a little more than a token cabinet seat or two when you come calling again.

LPC blogger tells part of the story

This is produced by a LPC party blogger. Its bang on. Under Stephen Harper thousands of Canadians have seen the loss of the jobs and have had to resort to EI.

Watch the vid...



I can't disagree with the video in any way. That ad could be produced by the NDP or the BLOC. It wasn't though. It was a federal Liberal that did this. The ad is truthful, raising the issue of the need for jobs and EI during the wait to get a job.

This is where the Liberal spin comes in. Its what you don't see in the video thats troubling. In the spring, the Liberals (LPC) decided to support the Harper budget after they extracted an agreement from said Harper to study changes to EI. In the interim and even prior to the agreement to study this issue of EI reform, thousands of Canadians have exhausted their EI coverage. That is especially true here in Ontario. Thousands more will run out of EI in the near future.

While provincial Premiers and the NDP were demanding changes to EI, the LPC and Conservatives have dithered, choosing to study the problem that's eating at the roots of Canada's social safety net. By the time they're finished I am guessing the solution will be watered down or no agreement will be found.

No agreement in EI changes should trigger a vote of non confidence. Don't hold your breath on that one. The LPC has had 79 chances to vote non confidence in the Harper government. Ignatieff it is time for you to step it up a notch.

What's in a name...

What's in a name...

There is a proposal at this weekends NDP convention in Halifax to drop the "New" from the New Democratic Party of Canada moniker. Several generations have grown up with the "New" attached to the Democratic Party in Canada. I think its a good idea to drop the "New" as well. Michael Byers, a professor at UBC and NDP candidate in the 2008 federal election thinks its a good idea as well, you can see his article in the Toronto Star today.

The people most fearing the potential NDP name change are the Liberals. The Liberals biggest threat is the NDP and their worst nightmare is the potential of the NDP with a name change to be seen by many younger Canadians for their polices rather than the dreaded red scare the NDP has been hobbled with at the hands of very effective Liberal campaigners and their supportive media.

Put a name change together and the prospect that the next election will see no party with a majority, the Democratic Party stands to make gains, likely at the expense of the Liberal Party. No wonder Liberals are running scared.

Mr. Ignatieff has returned the party's traditional core support levels – and revived it in Quebec – but the Strategic Counsel poll found they have lost the traditional edge among women, younger voters, and Canadians who live in cities and large towns, crucial to their hopes of victory. The NDP vote has remained firm.“The Liberals have plateaued,” said The Strategic Counsel's Peter Donolo. - The Globe and Mail, August 11, 2009

One of the reasons for this lack of growth has to be leadership on issues. People have a good idea what the Conservatives and the NDP would do. People have also seen what they get with Ignatieff and they haven't warmed up to it. Two big issues Liberals fumbled, E.I. and the Republican attack in the US on Canada's healthcare system.

As tens of thousands of vote rich Ontario workers lost jobs every month, Ignatieff proposed a committee to spend the summer studying the idea of change. What these workers needed was action, not another delay. The Liberals will pay dearly for that miscue.

Next up is the outright attack by the right in the USA of Canada's healthcare system. Now we all know and appreciate that we don't have a perfect system, its still better than the US healthcare system. Canadians are more than a little ticked off to see our country being maligned in this manner. They want Canadian leaders to speak out. Only NDP leader Jack Layton has stood up.

Name change or not, the next election will see the NDP going after both Harper and Ignatieff. This is a taste of what you will see from the NDP provided by National Director Brad Lavigne...

“Mr. Layton has written a book about investing in Canadians and their communities. Mr. Ignatieff has written books defending torture,” said Lavigne.

“Mr. Ignatieff has defended and supported the war in Iraq … If Mr. Ignatieff or Mr. Harper were prime minister in 2004, Canada would still be in Iraq today.”

Lavigne also scoffed at Ignatieff’s proposed changes to reform the Employment Insurance system saying the Liberal leader was “out of the country” when the system Canada has today was crafted.- By PETER ZIMONJIC, National Bureau, Sun Media

The NDP name change throws a big wrinkle in the Liberals election plan. They know its a smart move, its an opportunity to re-brand the NDP and they have little time to counter attack, unless the Liberals decide to find some other "face saving" means of supporting the Harper government until the spring.

What's in a name, ask any Liberal.

update: I found a post by the Northern BC Dipper supporting a name change. He does a good job of it!

Harper and Ignatieff lock hands

This video made me think of the budget.

Could this be a glimpse of the future as Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff lock hands in an effort to win the hearts of Canadians. Racing toward the election some day real soon, they just can't get away from each other! Then Canadians catch up to them.

Maybe I am just daydreaming...

Best before date past?

Best before date...

Problems are running deeper and deeper for the Liberal campaign as another Liberal makes public his lack of enthusiastic support for Dion. Its no big secret that the Liberals are having a bad time of it inside and that is reflected in the voter response outside. Tie that with the "the Liberals' erratic platform attempt to leave no voter unbought," - (Sun Columnist GREG WESTON) and you see just what kind of trouble they are in. They have no direction, a leader most Liberals don't want and a voting public that would prefer Layton to lead a coalition government over Dion.

Back to BC, where Gerry Lenoski, running under the bleeding liberal red brand in Burnaby-New Westminster, states he can't wait for Michael Ignatieff to become leader. Burnaby Now ran this story Saturday, September 27. Lenoski told the reporter, "Some day Mr. Dion may not be leader, and I hope Michael Ignatieff will replace him," Lenoski said in an interview. "Everybody has a best before date."

That does have to hurt. Lenoski realising the potential damage, a little late mind you, went on to say, "...Lenoski said he hopes Ignatieff leads the party "after a Dion government has been in power long enough to right the wrongs of the Tories." Good try Gerry!

The accidental aspect to all this is this screen shot from Lenoski's campaign site, welcoming Ignatieff to his campaign office. Lenoski was as many will know and acknowledged on his website, the chairman of Ignatieff's BC Campaign for leader.

To add a little more colour here Lenoski was in the running for the nomination in 2007 and then bowed out in April of that year according to an email he sent out, which Public Eye Online made public. Here is a piece of the email...

"...My professional demands now are such that I must leave today for Hong Kong on a business trip to China for 10 days. I came to this decision since my necessary absence could coincide with the Burnaby-New Westminster nomination meeting being scheduled, and its possibly even being held before I return home just ahead of the LPC(BC) Convention at Sun Peaks. Not least of all, I am withdrawing at this time because the prospect of a candidacy and an election campaign also conflicts with my current personal responsibilities more than had been apparent previously, and especially insofar as my consulting firm and our clients are concerned. ..."

Now it simply indicates that in 2007 he could not run here. He does go onto support the candidacy of former NDP activist, turned Liberal STEVE McCLURG.

I'm not aware of what happened next. I do recall Daniel Lee running for the nomination, Lee was backing Dion in the federal leadership contest. Did Steve decide later to back out and make room for Gerry to run, I expect he did. Steve would do that kind of thing, he's a nice guy (don't shoot at me Dippers). Still, all this is for not, in one way or another, the riding will still be New Democrat after Election Day.

Thanks to Dipper Chick for lead