Speculation on Politics

This post is a response to one I sent in response to some postings on the Egale Canada list. There has been some speculation the NDP will introduce a non-confidence motion on Thursday. Further, some suggested that if the NDP did this they would never forgive them. My response is below...

1. As a long time New Democrat I can tell you that I do not expect the NDP to be the ones to bring down the Government. Same-sex marriage and Kyoto are issues the NDP has led on and are considered important to New Democrats.

2. Not one political party in Canada has a better record than the NDP on same-sex marriage or LGBTT2QQI* issues provincially or federally.

3. Not one leader has been anywhere near as supportive and outspoken for our rights today or in the past than Jack Layton.

All this speculation about the NDP bringing down the government is somewhat curious, comes from those not informed and or is part of the Federal Liberal scare tactic used in the last election to get NDP supporters to vote Liberal. Ironic that in the end what the scare tactic did was elect a couple conservatives on the Prairies by a hundred+ votes and one in BC by the same margin, in each case the NDP was second. Had the Liberals not done this they would have elected a majority of NDP and Liberals.

That said, the issue here is in the hands of the Conservatives and the Liberals. If the Liberals want an election they will do something that ticks everyone off, if the Conservatives see the polls moving them into a big lead in Ontario, we will have an election.

Finally with BC being a big battle ground during the next election and a provincial election to officially begin Tuesday, the NDP does not want to face a federal election at the same time. Federal Liberals and Conservatives in BC will be working hard for Gordon Campbell, resources for all three national parties would be severely stretched. The other important piece is that federal parties will not get federal money until June. They are all broke.

Don't forget, none of us would be talking about this if the sponsorship fiasco had not occurred.

LGBTT2QQI* Lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, transsexual, 2 Spirited, Queer, questioning, Intersex


HDcanuck said...

I don't expect the New Dems to bring down the Liberals either, but I do expect the Conservatives to before too long. Maybe we'll end up with a Conservative minority government with the Liberals/Bloc holding the balance. That of course would be a dream scenario for Quebec Separatists, as the Conservatives under Harper will likely be less generous to Quebec (no more gravy train from Ottawa c/o the ROC), as the Conservative base int the West will demand it and they will have no seats in Quebec anyway.

Rick Barnes said...

The Tories are leaking to the media that they will not go forward with a no confidence motion without the support of the NDP and Bloc.

The Tories need better numbers in Ontario before they can go to an election. Otherwise they will end up as a minority party and will be brought down soon there after.

It is possible the Tories will be the governing party for a short time before the next election however not until after the same sex marriage law is passed.

bruce said...

The NDP?! The problem I've had with political news lately is that with this I've heard every possible scenario. Rumors are flying like never before and I've given up trying to get a handle on it.

I don't want an election right now, Gay marriage bill and all that. But I can't even judge if the Conservatives would have the balls to bring down the government right now.

“I'm so confused…”

Rick Barnes said...


Money and the Polls. One just needs to know those two things.

PR said...

What is two spirited?

Rick Barnes said...

Dear Peter,

It is most often used to refer to first nations people that are gay.


HDcanuck said...

Can this abbreviation get any longer? I'm dating myself, but I remember when it was GLB and how terribly modern we were because we included bisexual. It's getting to be like the hanky code -- you need a guidebook to decipher the thing...